Deterrence was once meant to prevent war. Today, it is designed to make war manageable.

When the United States attacks Iranian-connected targets, but does not attack Iranian territory, when Iran retaliates using its proxies, but not its missiles flying its flags, when neither side says anything, but both sides act in a manner calculated as cautiously as their words, we are informed that deterrence is holding. And it is — but not as we think. What we are witnessing is not the success of classical deterrence, but a quiet redefinition.

The Iran-US relationship is symbolic of this change. The drone attacks, cyber attacks, targeted assassinations and sanctions are used as an unending pressure campaign as opposed to a move towards resolution. Each move is calculated to be painful yet absorbable, visible yet deniable. Revenge will be meted out, even anticipated, but in moderation. This is deterrence by calibration, not fear.

A parallel reasoning........

© The Express Tribune