A Chinese shipyard recently logged more new vessel orders in six months than all of most nations' merchant fleets. In the first half of this year alone, Hengli Heavy has received 207 orders, an all-time record for one yard, anywhere, ever. It was not announced at the press conference. There was no treaty signed. It emerged, practically as an afterthought, in a report of the quarterly earnings. That is how the biggest shifts in the global order tend to arrive now: not with a declaration but with a balance sheet.

Officially, this is just business catching up to disruption. The Strait of Hormuz has become a live warzone by any honest reading, transits swinging wildly, from 91 in one week down to 73 the next, as Iran targets vessels using the strait and Washington blockades Iranian ports. In August alone, in less than two weeks, two mariners were lost there, on ships with nothing to do with the war. Record levels of container ships are stuck at ports in China, Asia and Europe,........

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