Tokyo Report | Politics | East Asia

How an Election in Okinawa Will Impact East Asian Security

Incumbent Governor Denny Tamaki is known for his staunch anti-U.S. base sentiment. His re-election bid will ripple through the alliance and beyond.

Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki

Okinawa Prefecture will hold its gubernatorial election on September 13. Incumbent Governor Denny Tamaki, in office since 2018, is seeking a third term. His main challenger is Koja Genta, a former deputy mayor of Naha backed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). While local elections in Japan typically center on issues like the local economy and social welfare, Okinawa’s pivotal geographic location means this election could become a critical variable influencing the future security situation of East Asia.

Okinawa sits at the heart of the First Island Chain and is the Japanese territory closest to both Taiwan and mainland China. Consequently, since the end of World War II, Okinawa has served as the U.S. military’s “Keystone of the Pacific,” bearing a heavy military burden. Currently, nearly 70 percent of U.S. military bases in Japan are located in Okinawa. 

Beyond the U.S. presence, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (SDF) are also expanding their deployments in Okinawa as the country accelerates a defense strategy known as the “Southwest Shift.” For instance, the Ground Self-Defense Force’s 15th Brigade, stationed in Okinawa, is set to be reorganized into a division by March 2027, increasing its personnel from 2,300 to 3,900. Furthermore, over the past decade, the Japanese government has deployed SDF units to Yonaguni, Miyako, and Ishigaki, islands located west of Okinawa Island, while bolstering radar, air defense, and rapid-response capabilities to counter the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) growing military activity in the East China Sea and the Western Pacific beyond the First Island Chain.

In fact, the PLA and the SDF have frequently engaged in standoffs in the area in recent years. On December 6, 2025, a fighter jet launched from a Chinese aircraft carrier locked radar on an Air Self-Defense Force fighter while flying over the high seas southeast of Okinawa Island, sparking a strong protest from Tokyo. Additionally, Chinese naval fleets and joint Chinese-Russian fleets have frequently transited the waters surrounding these islands. These developments underscore how Okinawa is increasingly becoming a frontline for great power confrontation.

For the people of Okinawa situated at the eye of the storm, the issue of U.S. and Japanese military deployments is not a simple matter of support versus opposition. It involves conflicting inner sentiments. 

On one hand, as China increases its activities near Okinawa – particularly with frequent patrols by its coast guard vessels in the waters around the Senkaku Islands (known in China as the Diaoyu Islands) – Okinawan perceptions of the military forces stationed there are shifting. According to public opinion polls, a greater number of Okinawans now view the presence of the SDF and even the U.S. military as necessary compared to the 1970s, shortly after the islands’ return to Japan. 

On the other hand, this shift does not alleviate Okinawans’ collective anxiety. For Tokyo, the deployment of missiles, radar systems, and SDF units may signify enhanced deterrence and situational awareness. However, for the local residents, these facilities also imply a higher likelihood that their home could become a frontline in a conflict or a target for attack. This has sparked a contradictory mindset and an enduring debate among the Okinawan people: Do military assets guarantee their safety or bring greater danger?

Since taking office as prefectural governor in 2018, Tamaki has made opposition to the construction of the new U.S. base at Henoko and the reduction of the base burden on Okinawa the core of his political agenda. However, the LDP’s victory in all four of Okinawa’s electoral districts during the February 2026 House of Representatives election clearly served as a warning sign for Tamaki. Furthermore, a capsizing incident in March involving boats participating in protests against the Henoko base, which resulted in two fatalities, including a student on a school trip, triggered criticism directed at Tamaki, a staunch opponent of the base. The upcoming election will serve as a critical test of Tamaki’s stance........

© The Diplomat