On October 23, 2025, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Chinese Communist Party Central Committee concluded with approval of the 15th Five-Year Plan, covering the period from 2026 to 2030. Chinese leaders have described this plan as a “crucial link” in the country’s long-term goal of achieving fundamental modernization by 2035. Yet beneath these ambitions lies a structural challenge that threatens to erode many of its gains.

Amid rapid economic growth and ambitions for a highly modernized industrial system, China’s population is aging at a faster pace than that of most major economies. Statistics show that registered births fell below 8 million in 2025 reaching the lowest level since the founding of the People’s Republic. These shifts are placing intense pressure on its pension system and the broader economy. A 2019 report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences warned that the state pension fund could face insolvency by 2035 if current trends persist, with reserves projected to peak in 2027 before rapidly declining. 

While the pension system remains technically sustainable at the national level, widening disparities across provinces and regions are creating growing financial imbalances.

By 2040, roughly 402 million people in China are expected to be over the age of 60, more than a quarter of the population. By comparison, the total population of the United States is expected to reach around 379 million by that time. This shift marks a turning point for China, signaling the erosion of its long-standing advantage in abundant and affordable labor while presenting a formidable financial challenge in caring for an aging society. 

These demographic pressures prompted China to begin a gradual adjustment of its statutory retirement age in 2025, the first such change in more than seven decades. The retirement age for men will gradually increase from 60 to 63 over a 15-year period while the retirement age for women will rise from 55 to 58, with adjustments varying by occupation. While delaying retirement may ease fiscal strain, it does little to alter the underlying demographic arithmetic driving the crisis.

The pension system was built under very different........

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