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Despite Delays, China Could Gain Ground in the Space Race

While the U.S. still holds considerable advantages gained through its earlier lunar explorations, China’s planned mission could provide it with a crucial edge.

China abruptly postponed its planned Chang’e 7 lunar launch, which was scheduled to take place on August 24. While the new launch timeline is unclear, the mission could still be a significant step in the U.S.-China space race.

The launch was initially scheduled for August 23 before being rescheduled for a day later and eventually postponed indefinitely. Some outlets have reported poor weather as a reason for the delay, but official statements have given limited details, saying that the lunar expedition “failed to meet launch criteria.”

It’s now less clear whether China will return to the lunar surface before the United States. If it can, it may be able to gain advantages in areas such as resource mapping and the reshaping of norms, supporting Beijing to pursue its ambitions in outer space. While the U.S. still holds considerable advantages gained through its earlier lunar explorations, this mission could provide China with a crucial edge.

The uncrewed mission aims to search the lunar surface for water ice. It includes an orbiter, lander, a small hopping probe and a rover, all launched on a Long March 5 rocket to a landing site near the southeast ridge of the Shackleton crater on the lunar south pole. Another key objective is to explore the area’s suitability as the site of a planned lunar research base.

In 2021, China and Russia announced a new lunar initiative: a crewed lunar base called the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), which is meant to be a crewed lunar base. This was to be led by the China National Space Administration and Russia’s Roscosmos. China and Russia plan for this base to facilitate further exploration of the Moon, including possible resource utilisation.

The Chang’e 7 mission also includes six international partners conducting their own experiments, including Russia and Egypt. Several U.S. allies and partners are also taking part, such as Bahrain, Italy, Thailand, and Switzerland as well as a Hawaii-based non-government organization. The inclusion of such a diverse set of partners is indicative of China’s efforts to conduct space diplomacy and generate soft power benefits. It may also be intended to give additional legitimacy to Chinese lunar projects, especially if those projects were to veer into areas that could raise questions, such as lunar mining.

But the mission’s primary aim will be finding water ice. If China can confirm the presence of water ice, it could potentially convert the substance into drinking water and........

© The Diplomat