Flashpoints | Security | East Asia

The US Attack on Iran Is Reshaping the World Order

The United States risks a permanent quagmire in the Middle East – which will also redefine the strategic balance of the Korean Peninsula and beyond.

Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Delbert D. Black (DDG 119) fires a Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) in support of Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. strikes on Iran, Feb. 28, 2026.

On February 28, under the direct authorization of U.S. President Donald Trump, a coordinated Israeli-U.S. decapitation strike targeted a high-level security summit in Tehran. The operation resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This unprecedented move to eliminate the head of a sovereign state has plunged the international community into a state of profound uncertainty.

“To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity,” Trump said in a recorded video posted on his Social Truth account. “Or in the alternative, face certain death.”

The surgical strike occurred less than two months after the high-profile U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on January 3. Neutralizing two sovereign leaders of adversarial regimes in such a short window effectively challenges long-standing diplomatic norms and the traditional application of state sovereignty. Following the strike, the White House issued a declaration of unlimited retribution against any force threatening American interests, a stance that suggests a strategic pivot toward using unilateral military decisiveness as a primary instrument of national security.

However, beneath the triumphalist rhetoric of the White House lies the prospect of a protracted regional conflict. Historical precedents, such as the intervention in Iraq, suggest that decapitating a regime’s leadership can trigger a disorganized but relentless asymmetric war rather than a swift collapse. The death of Khamenei has already seen hardline clerics and IRGC remnants consolidate under an interim leadership committed to long-term resistance. Under these conditions, the United States may face the risk of becoming entrenched in a conflict far more sophisticated than past insurgencies, potentially redirecting U.S. military and economic resources into a Middle Eastern quagmire for the foreseeable future.

On the other hand, the strategic gains for the U.S. should the operation succeed are substantial. A decisive victory could facilitate a fundamental reordering of the Middle East, potentially positioning Israel as the undisputed regional hegemon and a primary security provider. Under a “Peace through Strength” framework, the Trump administration appears to be moving toward consolidating a pro-Western bloc with Israel’s military and technological prowess at its core. By degrading Iran’s nuclear and naval capabilities, the U.S. effectively removes the primary kinetic threat to the Abraham Accords, potentially paving the way for a historic normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Such a realignment would not only secure global energy corridors but also cement U.S. influence over the region’s economic future, transforming the Middle East into a unified front against rival global powers.

Shockwaves from these developments are already reaching the Korean Peninsula, where the “Iran Model” of threshold nuclear survival is being reassessed. The Kim regime in North Korea has already witnessed the collapse of the “Libya Model,” where disarmament was followed by regime change. For Kim Jong Un, the demise of Khamenei may be interpreted as........

© The Diplomat