Interviews | Diplomacy | East Asia

China’s Interests in the Israel-US War With Iran

Insights from Yoram Evron.

An F/A-18E Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 14, prepares to make an arrested landing on the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) in support of Operation Epic Fury, March. 1, 2026.

The Diplomat author Mercy Kuo regularly engages subject-matter experts, policy practitioners, and strategic thinkers across the globe for their diverse insights into U.S. Asia policy. This conversation with Dr. Yoram Evron – associate professor of Political Science and Chinese Studies at the University of Haifa, Israel and senior fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University – is the 499th in “The Trans-Pacific View Insight Series.”

Identify China’s main interests in the current Israel-U.S. war with Iran.

China’s main interests in the U.S.-Israel war with Iran center on secure access to energy resources and stability in the Persian Gulf, which supplies a large share of its oil imports. A wider war could destabilize energy markets and drive prices sharply upward. Another key objective is protecting Chinese citizens and assets across the Middle East. Past regional conflicts have cost China billions of dollars and highlighted the importance Beijing places on safeguarding its nationals abroad.

China also seeks to preserve the complex network of relationships it has built with multiple regional actors. By maintaining ties with rival states, Beijing has expanded its influence while avoiding entanglement in local conflicts. A widening war could disrupt this delicate balance and force China to adjust its regional policy to new alignments.

Finally, the conflict touches on broader strategic interests. China aims to maintain its image as a leading voice of the Global South advocating stability and development, while also casting doubt on U.S. international leadership – without becoming actively involved in the conflict.

What factors constrain China from offering more proactive support to the Iranian regime despite its longstanding political and economic backing?

Although China maintains extensive political and economic ties with Iran, several considerations discourage Beijing from offering more proactive support.

China traditionally avoids active, particularly military, involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts. Its regional strategy relies primarily on economic engagement and diplomatic balancing rather than direct security intervention.

Another constraint is Beijing’s long-standing reluctance to confront the United States on Iran’s behalf. Despite their partnership, China has consistently avoided actions that could escalate into a direct strategic confrontation with Washington.

China’s broader regional interests also limit its willingness to side openly with Tehran. Beijing maintains strong relations with other major Middle Eastern powers, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Taking Iran’s side too visibly could jeopardize those relationships and undermine China’s carefully balanced diplomacy in the region.

China’s role in the global energy market also reduces the need to defend the current regime. Regardless of who governs in Tehran, Iran will remain dependent on exporting oil and gas to China, the world’s largest crude importer. 

Finally, past experience also encourages caution. Shortly before the Shah’s fall, China moved to strengthen ties with his government, a step the new revolutionary leadership later resented. Beijing is therefore unlikely to repeat such a move by aligning too closely with a regime whose survival is uncertain.

Examine the impact of the current conflict on China-Israel relations.

China-Israel relations had already cooled in recent years, and the events following the October 7 attacks accelerated this trend. In China, the crisis triggered an unprecedented wave of criticism of Israel and antisemitic expressions in public discourse, contributing to a deterioration in bilateral relations. Over time, however, Beijing recognized that Israel’s regional position had not collapsed and may even have improved, and it somewhat moderated its approach.

Nevertheless, the damage to the relationship had already been done. Taiwan also took advantage of the situation to deepen its ties with Israel, expanding political and technological cooperation with Jerusalem. 

Despite these tensions, both sides have worked to prevent a complete collapse of their relations. Chinese companies continued operating in Israel throughout the recent conflicts, even as many other international firms postponed or suspended their activities.

The war with Iran may reinforce this pragmatic pattern. For China, maintaining relations with dominant regional actors remains important, and Israel’s position as a powerful player in the Middle East has arguably strengthened. For Israel, the war has boosted national confidence, allowing policymakers to prioritize pragmatic interests – including economic relations with China – over negative sentiments.

Analyze the destabilizing effect on China’s interests in the Middle East and Persian Gulf as the war widens.

Since the October 7 attacks, regional conflicts have highlighted China’s limited political influence in the Middle East. Whether due to a lack of willingness or capability, Beijing has remained largely on the sidelines during major crises.

This passivity has undermined years of Chinese diplomatic efforts aimed at projecting the image of a rising political power in the region. By largely avoiding any meaningful support for Iran – often described as China’s strategic partner – Beijing has reinforced perceptions that it is not a significant political player in the Middle East. Such perceptions could weaken China’s broader ambition to position itself as a leading voice of the Global South and an alternative pole of global leadership.

At the same time, China’s more tangible interests in the region are likely to remain relatively secure. Beijing maintains considerable economic leverage through trade, investment, and infrastructure projects across the Middle East, and will likely rely on these tools to protect its commercial interests and a certain amount of influence even in a more volatile environment.

Assess the long-term implications of the Israel-U.S. war with Iran on China-U.S. geostrategic competition.

The conflict may influence broader strategic competition between Washington and Beijing in several ways. China’s strategic culture places great importance on perceptions of strength and resolve. The United States’ decisive response to Iranian actions may therefore reinforce Washington’s image as a capable and determined power in Beijing’s eyes. At the same time, China appears interested, for the time being, in avoiding unnecessary confrontation with the United States, particularly amid domestic economic challenges. A display of American resolve could thus encourage greater caution in Beijing’s short-term strategic calculations.

Meanwhile, the war provides China with valuable opportunities to study U.S. military capabilities and operational methods. Observing the conflict allows Chinese analysts to draw insights about American technology, doctrine, logistics, and the domestic and international reactions to U.S. military operations.

Taken together, these dynamics may influence China’s thinking about potential future conflicts, including scenarios involving Taiwan. The combination of a stronger perception of U.S. resolve and the lessons drawn from observing the war may reduce the likelihood of a major Chinese move against Taiwan during the current U.S. presidential term. At the same time, it reinforces Beijing’s belief in the central role of military power in international relations and will likely accelerate the buildup of its military capabilities.

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The Diplomat author Mercy Kuo regularly engages subject-matter experts, policy practitioners, and strategic thinkers across the globe for their diverse insights into U.S. Asia policy. This conversation with Dr. Yoram Evron – associate professor of Political Science and Chinese Studies at the University of Haifa, Israel and senior fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University – is the 499th in “The Trans-Pacific View Insight Series.”

Identify China’s main interests in the current Israel-U.S. war with Iran.

China’s main interests in the U.S.-Israel war with Iran center on secure access to energy resources and stability in the Persian Gulf, which supplies a large share of its oil imports. A wider war could destabilize energy markets and drive prices sharply upward. Another key objective is protecting Chinese citizens and assets across the Middle East. Past regional conflicts have cost China billions of dollars and highlighted the importance Beijing places on safeguarding its nationals abroad.

China also seeks to preserve the complex network of relationships it has built with multiple regional actors. By maintaining ties with rival states, Beijing has expanded its influence while avoiding entanglement in local conflicts. A widening war could disrupt this delicate balance and force China to adjust its regional policy to new alignments.

Finally, the conflict touches on broader strategic interests. China aims to maintain its image as a leading voice of the Global South advocating stability and development, while also casting doubt on U.S. international leadership – without becoming actively involved in the conflict.

What factors constrain China from offering more proactive support to the Iranian regime despite its longstanding political and economic backing?

Although China maintains extensive political and economic ties with Iran, several considerations discourage Beijing from offering more proactive support.

China traditionally avoids active, particularly military, involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts. Its regional strategy relies primarily on economic engagement and diplomatic balancing rather than direct security intervention.

Another constraint is Beijing’s long-standing reluctance to confront the United States on Iran’s behalf. Despite their partnership, China has consistently avoided actions that could escalate into a direct strategic confrontation with Washington.

China’s broader regional interests also limit its willingness to side openly with Tehran. Beijing maintains strong relations with other major Middle Eastern powers, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Taking Iran’s side too visibly could jeopardize those relationships and undermine China’s carefully balanced diplomacy in the region.

China’s role in the global energy market also reduces the need to defend the current regime. Regardless of who governs in Tehran, Iran will remain dependent on exporting oil and gas to China, the world’s largest crude importer. 

Finally, past experience also encourages caution. Shortly before the Shah’s fall, China moved to strengthen ties with his government, a step the new revolutionary leadership later resented. Beijing is therefore unlikely to repeat such a move by aligning too closely with a regime whose survival is uncertain.

Examine the impact of the current conflict on China-Israel relations.

China-Israel relations had already cooled in recent years, and the events following the October 7 attacks accelerated this trend. In China, the crisis triggered an unprecedented wave of criticism of Israel and antisemitic expressions in public discourse, contributing to a deterioration in bilateral relations. Over time, however, Beijing recognized that Israel’s regional position had not collapsed and may even have improved, and it somewhat moderated its approach.

Nevertheless, the damage to the relationship had already been done. Taiwan also took advantage of the situation to deepen its ties with Israel, expanding political and technological cooperation with Jerusalem. 

Despite these tensions, both sides have worked to prevent a complete collapse of their relations. Chinese companies continued operating in Israel throughout the recent conflicts, even as many other international firms postponed or suspended their activities.

The war with Iran may reinforce this pragmatic pattern. For China, maintaining relations with dominant regional actors remains important, and Israel’s position as a powerful player in the Middle East has arguably strengthened. For Israel, the war has boosted national confidence, allowing policymakers to prioritize pragmatic interests – including economic relations with China – over negative sentiments.

Analyze the destabilizing effect on China’s interests in the Middle East and Persian Gulf as the war widens.

Since the October 7 attacks, regional conflicts have highlighted China’s limited political influence in the Middle East. Whether due to a lack of willingness or capability, Beijing has remained largely on the sidelines during major crises.

This passivity has undermined years of Chinese diplomatic efforts aimed at projecting the image of a rising political power in the region. By largely avoiding any meaningful support for Iran – often described as China’s strategic partner – Beijing has reinforced perceptions that it is not a significant political player in the Middle East. Such perceptions could weaken China’s broader ambition to position itself as a leading voice of the Global South and an alternative pole of global leadership.

At the same time, China’s more tangible interests in the region are likely to remain relatively secure. Beijing maintains considerable economic leverage through trade, investment, and infrastructure projects across the Middle East, and will likely rely on these tools to protect its commercial interests and a certain amount of influence even in a more volatile environment.

Assess the long-term implications of the Israel-U.S. war with Iran on China-U.S. geostrategic competition.

The conflict may influence broader strategic competition between Washington and Beijing in several ways. China’s strategic culture places great importance on perceptions of strength and resolve. The United States’ decisive response to Iranian actions may therefore reinforce Washington’s image as a capable and determined power in Beijing’s eyes. At the same time, China appears interested, for the time being, in avoiding unnecessary confrontation with the United States, particularly amid domestic economic challenges. A display of American resolve could thus encourage greater caution in Beijing’s short-term strategic calculations.

Meanwhile, the war provides China with valuable opportunities to study U.S. military capabilities and operational methods. Observing the conflict allows Chinese analysts to draw insights about American technology, doctrine, logistics, and the domestic and international reactions to U.S. military operations.

Taken together, these dynamics may influence China’s thinking about potential future conflicts, including scenarios involving Taiwan. The combination of a stronger perception of U.S. resolve and the lessons drawn from observing the war may reduce the likelihood of a major Chinese move against Taiwan during the current U.S. presidential term. At the same time, it reinforces Beijing’s belief in the central role of military power in international relations and will likely accelerate the buildup of its military capabilities.

Mercy A. Kuo is Senior Contributing Author at The Diplomat.

China in the Middle East

China reaction to U.S. strikes on Iran

China-Israel relations

Israel-U.S. strikes on Iran

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