Crossroads Asia | Economy | Central Asia

The War in Iran Sends Economic Shockwaves Through Central Asia

Iran’s ban on food exports and the disruption of trade corridors are hitting the landlocked economies of Central Asia at a vulnerable moment.

The Israeli-U.S. military operation against Iran that began on February 28 has already sent economic shockwaves well beyond the Middle East. For the landlocked economies of Central Asia, the fallout is immediate and tangible: trade routes severed, food supplies disrupted, and energy prices spiking. The region, which had been quietly deepening economic ties with Tehran for years, now faces the consequences of that proximity.

Iran banned all food and agricultural exports on March 3, citing the need to prevent domestic shortages. The decision took effect immediately. For Tajikistan, the impact is direct. Trade between the two countries quadrupled over the past five years, reaching a record $484 million in 2025. Iranian dairy, sugar, spices, fruits, and vegetables are staples in Tajik markets. In 2025 alone, Tajikistan imported over 2,600 tons of oranges, about 1,000 tons of watermelons, and more than 3,300 tons of white sugar from Iran. Those supplies have now stopped arriving. Somon Air, Tajikistan’s national carrier, suspended flights on the Dushanbe-Tehran route until the end of March.

Turkmenistan, which shares a border with Iran, is the most exposed. Residents in Turkmenistan’s western Balkan region rely heavily on Iranian imports for food and household items. Prices for cooking oil, chicken, and potatoes have nearly doubled since the war began. The Sarakhs border crossing, a key hub for Iranian goods entering Turkmenistan, has largely ground to a halt. Satellite imagery from late February showed long lines of trucks at the Turkmen customs checkpoint, and subsequent images indicated no movement at all.

Uzbekistan, too, is feeling the pressure. An Uzbek distributor of Iranian dairy products in Samarkand told RFE/RL that about 15 trucks of Iranian dairy products used to arrive daily via Turkmenistan – that flow has now stopped. Iran held roughly 8-10 percent of Uzbekistan’s dairy import market, competing on price with Russian and Belarusian suppliers.

The broader economic picture is grim. Global oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel, with Brent crude briefly hitting $119.50 as Iran’s de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies. For oil-importing Central Asian countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, higher energy prices feed directly into inflation and transport costs. Kazakhstan, as an oil exporter, may see........

© The Diplomat