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Why Kim Jong Un Should Want a 4th Summit With Donald Trump

Here’s what Pyongyang’s Foreign Ministry might be telling Kim about a possible summit.

In this Feb. 27, 2019, file photo, U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the Sofitel Legend Metropole hotel in Hanoi, Vietnam, for their second summit meeting.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s push for a fourth summit with Kim Jong Un has so far been rejected by the North Korean leader, who may be playing hard to get. However, based on our decades analyzing North Korea, participation in countless face-to-face meetings with North Koreans – official and unofficial – and numerous visits to North Korea, we think that some in Pyongyang may believe their country could benefit greatly from a fourth summit, though not in terms of what Washington may think.

In view of North Korea and Kim’s experience, especially his three summits during Trump’s first term in office, and Pyongyang’s analysis of the president’s current foreign policy, the North Korean Foreign Ministry would emphasize the following points that lay out a strong case with Kim Jong Un for a fourth summit.

First, it would point out that because of Kim’s policies in the military and economic fields, taking advantage of shifts in international geopolitics, especially Pyongyang’s close relationship with Russia and China, North Korea is in a position of strength for a summit, should the chairman choose to proceed. 

The United States and Trump, on the other hand, are in a much weaker position than before. The president’s overconfidence and erratic personality will almost certainly result in missteps that further weaken the U.S. position. And he doesn’t grasp that another summit will greatly benefit North Korea, which is now working in opposition to Washington. 

The ministry would add that, as Kim has said many times, the past – the previous summits in Singapore, Hanoi, and at the Demilitarized Zone – is gone. Back then, the chairman focused on improving relations with Washington in return for putting his nuclear program on the table and creating space for North Korea to modernize its economy. 

But today, another summit would improve North Korea’s global position by supporting its friends – China and especially Russia – undermining Washington’s influence abroad, and, hopefully, nudging Trump to accept Pyongyang’s growing nuclear arsenal. The ministry would also observe that, more than ever, Trump’s missteps have made the situation ripe for creating tensions in the already fraying South Korea-U.S. alliance.

Time Is on Pyongyang’s Side 

Just as in the past, should Kim decide to proceed, the timing and venue of a new summit will be the subject of considerable back and forth with the Americans. In this instance, the North Koreans may believe the result of a summit could be more consequential because of Trump’s personality and his growing domestic political weakness.

The ministry would applaud Kim Jong Un’s policy of delaying a summit decision to take advantage of Trump’s eagerness to meet and extract unilateral concessions has already resulted in victories. The president has shortened one South Korea-U.S. exercise and left a cloud hanging over the rest. 

Trump has also inched away from Washington’s long-standing pursuit of denuclearization and toward accepting North Korea as a nuclear power. That appears to have had the added benefit of setting off an internal debate. The State Department continues to back denuclearization, contradicting Trump’s position and sending confusing signals to U.S. allies.

Looking ahead, the North Korean Foreign Ministry would predict that if the Republicans lose the upcoming November congressional elections, as expected, nothing will save Trump from a greatly weakened situation. As a result, he may be anxious to make even more concessions to paint any outcome – even simply holding a meeting with Kim – as a personal victory. 

North Korea’s Real Assessment of President Trump

While North Korea’s media have avoided direct criticism of Trump and continued to note Kim’s personal relationship with him, in private, foreign ministry analysts probably believe that his worst personality traits, evident in 2018 and 2019, have only become worse. These, in turn, will provide openings to reach agreements that further support Pyongyang’s strategy.

They would emphasize seven traits that will affect Trump’s performance at a North Korea-U.S. summit. First, at 80, he is seven years older than when the last summit was held and has declined physically and mentally. As the aged typically do, he has good days and bad days. Second, he reacts well to flattery, more so than ever. Third, Trump has a higher opinion of himself and his negotiating ability than in the past, even in the face of repeated failures. Fourth since he is more likely to rely on his gut feelings rather than expert advice, Trump will act impulsively. Fifth, he is losing his grip on reality. American media often laugh at many of his claims. Sixth, Trump has rolled out the red carpet at summits with presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China, despite their opposition to Washington’s global interests. He mistakenly believes that flattery can overcome policy differences. 

Perhaps even more important, Kim’s advisors will point out that Trump does not understand strategic thinking. Past summits with North Korea have demonstrated that he has no grasp of the wider picture; the U.S. war with Iran again underlined his short sightedness. It is doubtful he will understand that the North’s new objectives are different from the past and inimical to U.S. interests.

The American Negotiating Position

Given this analysis of Trump, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry would conclude that he will either repeat standard U.S. positions or come up with his own on the spur of the moment without expert advice from his staff. 

Trump knows denuclearization is not in the cards. Instead, he may float the idea of a nuclear freeze. If he does bring it up, the chairman could simply repeat his insistence that Pyongyang needs a strong deterrent. From his perspective, that deterrent is not just to maintain North Korea’s security but an absolute requirement for regional balance, especially given the growing danger of Japanese militarism. 

The president may also repeat his proposal made at the 2019 Hanoi summit for a moratorium on further testing of intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that can reach the United States. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung advanced the same idea at the recent United Nations General Assembly session. The proposal wouldn’t include the shorter-range missiles that target Seoul and Tokyo. As a result, it will prove controversial in South Korea and could create new tensions in........

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