Features | Politics | East Asia

How Would China Actually Govern Taiwan?

A recent academic symposium offers new insights into China’s vision of a “Taiwan Special Administrative Region.”

On September 12, the University of Hong Kong’s Beijing Center held a low-profile symposium at which Chinese scholars discussed the institutional design and governance arrangements that would follow unification with Taiwan. The participants reached 12 points of consensus on how the “One Country, Two Systems” principle should be implemented in Taiwan.

All of Taiwan’s power would derive from authorization by Beijing; Taiwan’s armed forces would be disbanded and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops stationed on the island. All this while still upholding the central government’s policy on Taiwan: “peaceful reunification.” The blueprint, however, also accounts for the scenario of achieving “reunification through non-peaceful means,” which would involve a transition period of “quasi-military governance for a duration of three to five years.”

Get to the bottom of the story

Subscribe today and join thousands of diplomats, analysts, policy professionals and business readers who rely on The Diplomat for expert Asia-Pacific coverage.

Get unlimited access to in-depth analysis you won't find anywhere else, from South China Sea tensions to ASEAN diplomacy to India-Pakistan relations. More than 5,000 articles a year.

Unlimited articles and expert analysis

Weekly newsletter with exclusive insights

16-year archive of diplomatic coverage

Ad-free reading on all devices

Support independent journalism

Already have an account? Log in.

On September 12, the University of Hong Kong’s Beijing Center held a low-profile symposium at which Chinese scholars discussed the institutional design and governance arrangements that would follow unification with Taiwan. The participants reached 12 points of consensus on how the “One Country, Two Systems” principle should be implemented in Taiwan.

All of Taiwan’s power would derive from authorization by Beijing; Taiwan’s armed forces would be disbanded and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops stationed on the island. All this while still upholding the central government’s policy on Taiwan: “peaceful reunification.” The blueprint, however, also accounts for the scenario of achieving “reunification through non-peaceful means,” which would involve a transition period of “quasi-military governance for a duration of three to five years.”

The symposium built on Xi Jinping’s 2019 speech marking the 40th anniversary of the “Message to Compatriots in Taiwan,” in which he called for exploring a “Two Systems” solution for Taiwan. The symposium was not an isolated event. Chinese scholars regularly debate and publish on how Beijing should approach unification. 

This article puts the 12-point consensus in context and compares it with the 2022 white paper “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era,” to assess how part of China’s scholarly community envisions governing Taiwan after unification, and where that vision departs from the contemporary official line.

One Country, Two Systems

More than 20 Chinese scholars who participated in the symposium drew on the post-handover experience Beijing has from Hong Kong and Macao, both Special Administrative Regions (SARs) that operate under the principle of “One Country, Two Systems.” 

Hong Kong was transferred from British to Chinese sovereignty on July 1, 1997, after more than 150 years of British rule following the First Opium War (1839-1842). During the negotiations, Beijing promised Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy and pledged to maintain its capitalist system and way of life unchanged for 50 years. Macao, where Portuguese traders settled in the 1550s, was handed over to Beijing on December 20, 1999, becoming China’s second SAR.

The “One Country, Two Systems” principle was initially designed with Taiwan in mind. In September 1981, Ye Jianying, a top military leader and chairman of the National People’s........

© The Diplomat