Trans-Pacific View | Diplomacy | East Asia

The US Is Losing to China in the Battle of Global Influence

China is building a dense network of relationships across all pillars of influence while the United States continues to weaken the institutions it traditionally used to compete.

Heads of state and government participating in the 2024 FOCAC Summit pose for a group photo in Beijing, China, Sep. 5, 2024.

Global influence is frequently a topic for conference panels, talk show pundits, and earnest think tank recommendations, but this nebulous measure of soft power has real-world impact for national security, economic strength and political power.  

Today, this battle is unfolding rapidly, region by region, country by country, through security and commercial partnerships, emerging regional groupings, newly established diplomatic outposts, and academic partnerships.  

As conflicts erupt and new trade and political alignments emerge, it’s clear: China is building a dense network of relationships across all pillars of influence while the United States continues to weaken the institutions it traditionally used to compete. The United States should do more than watch China’s intensive investment in building global influence – in diplomacy, in academic and cultural exchanges, in economic partnerships, and in national security pacts. 

Influence is hard to gauge – and even harder to count on. Even the closest of diplomatic partners have sovereign interests and political differences. Historical relationships, either through war-hardened alliances or postcolonial reckonings, can shape perception and sway alignment. However, China’s transactional approach inherently reflects its genuine disregard for human rights, democratic aspirations, and welfare of citizens in other countries. This is China’s weak point, which the United States can leverage to regain lost ground.  

Diplomacy: You Must Show up 

The work of diplomacy is accomplished behind the scenes, by building connections, negotiating agreements, and advocating for businesses. The work of a diplomat is to know the government officials and trade contacts before you make an ask. This allows diplomats to build the trust required to get to agreement before a crisis happens or an ask is made.  

China is succeeding at one of the first rules of diplomacy: showing up. 

The Lowry Institute’s Global Diplomacy Index paints a clear picture. China has 274 diplomatic posts globally, compared with the United States’ 271. The strategic advantage is even clearer in Africa – where China has 60 to the United States’ 56 – and in East Asia, where China has 44 to the United States’ 27.  While the numerical difference is small, the trend is concerning. 

Beijing leverages its growing diplomatic presence as a strategic asset, populating its embassies with commercial, educational, and political professionals. It is gradually making inroads even with the United States’ longtime partners. Just this month, China’s President Xi Jinping traveled to Egypt, where Beijing and Cairo signed an array of agreements, from linking Egypt’s national development plan to China’s Belt and Road Initiative to a pledge to increase trade and investments in their own currencies, moving away from the U.S. dollar. 

For the United States, the trend is going the other way, and that’s worrying. Despite a slate of recent nominations, 93 out of 196 ambassadorial slots remain vacant, according to the tracker maintained by the American Foreign Service Association. And while in many cases there are able professional diplomats serving as chargés d’affaires in these roles, a confirmed ambassador signals seriousness to host governments.  

The State Department has also taken steps to close a number of smaller consulates and shrink operations at other embassies. While there is absolutely a strong case for prioritizing engagement, streamlining operations, and improving efficiencies, the narrative that the United States is retreating from the world continues to spread. 

Academic opportunities and cultural exchanges are important forms of diplomacy and a path to increasing the United States’ global influence. Engaging with the next generations of global talent is a critical investment or opportunity, and China understands this.  

At the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), Xi announced 60,000 government scholarships for African students. In addition to opportunities for students, FOCAC commitments will see some 20,000 African regional and city leaders receiving training in China every year, along with African journalists sent to China.  

These programs are far from boondoggles: They enmesh these emerging officials, journalists, and business leaders into Chinese institutions and professional networks. And despite warnings from the United States, China has now established over 500 Confucius Institutes around the world. These institutes are purported to facilitate Chinese education and people-to-people exchanges, but effectively serve as propaganda arms of the Chinese government.  

The United States has extraordinary assets of its own, including an open and free democracy, the best universities in the world, and an innovation economy. Traditionally, U.S. government-supported exchange programs showcase all three.  

From the International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP), which identifies rising stars in business, government, security, and media and brings them to the United States to showcase America’s story to world-class State Department programs, including the Fulbright, Gilman, Boren, and Critical Language Scholarships, these programs engage professionals at key junctures in their professional careers.  

A scholarship or an exchange isn’t simply tuition assistance. These........

© The Diplomat