Asia Defense | Security | East Asia

Pete Hegseth’s Missed Chance to Reassure – and Deter – on Taiwan

The U.S. defense secretary failed to mention Taiwan once during his closely-watched speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth delivers his speech to the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 on May 30, 2026,

From May 29-31, defense chiefs from across the Indo-Pacific region – home to most of the world’s ten largest militaries – gathered in Singapore for the annual Shangri-La Dialogue. When U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth joined them for the second time since taking office, his speech made more headlines for what he did not mention: Taiwan. His address came at a high-stakes moment for U.S. aims in the world’s most geopolitically consequential region. On the heels of U.S. President Donald Trump’s May summit in Beijing with President Xi Jinping, Hegseth had a unique opportunity to set the record straight on the administration’s support for Taiwan.

Instead, Hegseth’s remarks characterized the U.S. government’s approach to the Indo-Pacific as “confident enough to speak and walk softly while carrying a big stick,” but did not directly address one of the most important regional security issues for everyone in the room.

Much has changed since Hegseth spoke at last year’s gathering, and not just the fact that his speech in 2025 mentioned Taiwan five times and warned that conflict initiated by Beijing could be “imminent.” Back then, Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro was still walking free, and Iran’s Ali Khamenei was still alive. 

But at least one important trendline still has not changed: Beijing’s intensifying pressure campaign against Taiwan.

Last December, the Pentagon warned that “China expects to be able to fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027.” Days later, the Chinese military conducted drills all around the main island to simulate an invasion, and a government spokesperson described the exercises as “severe punishment” for Taiwan.

Faced with Beijing’s growing military strength, Taipei’s ability to defend itself against a potential invasion is one of the most decisive factors in deterring an invasion from happening at all. By investing in many of the modern asymmetric military tools that Ukraine has used effectively, such as cheap drones, Taiwan can make Beijing fear that China’s invading forces would experience devastating losses akin to Russia’s.

The good news is that Taiwan is stepping up. In the past decade, Taipei has doubled its defense spending, reformed its military, and invested in its overall resilience. Last month, the legislature advanced $25 billion in additional military spending. The compromise measure fell short of President Lai Ching-te’s initial $40 billion proposal, but it marked an important step nonetheless.

Taiwan has taken major strides in recent years, and Lai aims to increase the island’s defense spending to 5 percent of its GDP by 2030. However, even if Taipei quadrupled the scale of its current ambitions, the sheer size of China’s military requires continued cooperation between Taiwan and the United States in order to prevent cross-strait conflict. For this reason, the decades-long U.S. policy of supporting Taipei’s self-defense capabilities, codified in the Taiwan Relations Act, still enjoys strong bipartisan support on Capitol Hill and throughout past Republican and Democratic administrations.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has sent an array of mixed signals regarding the depth of its support for Taiwan.

On the positive side of the ledger, the Executive Branch announced an $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan last........

© The Diplomat