Features | Politics | South Asia

Balendra Shah’s Landslide Electoral Victory Reshapes Nepali Politics

Whether the RSP can deliver on its many promises remains to be seen. But one thing is already clear: The March 5 election has fundamentally changed Nepali politics. 

Balendra Shah addresses supporters during a public gathering in Janakpur Dham, Madhesh Province, Nepal, Jan. 19 2026, ahead of the general election on March 5.

The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), under Balendra Shah, has achieved what seemed impossible. 

For a long time, it was believed that Nepal’s new mixed electoral system – which combines direct elections for 165 seats and proportional representation for 110 seats, for a total of 275 seats – could not produce a majority government. The assumption was that this system, which supposedly favored smaller parties and contributed to political fragmentation, would inevitably lead to a divided House. 

But Shah entered the scene and upended that assumption, almost overnight. His party, the RSP, is now expected to secure not just a simple majority but a two-thirds majority (sufficient even to initiate the process of constitution amendment). The last time a political party in Nepal garnered such a thumping mandate was during the country’s first democratic elections back in 1959.

The March 5 elections were held against the backdrop of the Gen Z uprising that took place in Nepal on September 8-9, 2025. The uprising was largely a result of widespread anger against corruption and represented a collective rebuke from the younger generation against the entrenched political elite. It was also fueled by resentment over attempts to restrict social media space.

The uprising was spontaneous and surprising. The state attempted to suppress it brutally. In the process, 77 people were killed and the government of K.P. Sharma Oli was overthrown. 

Following this, an interim government under former Chief Justice Sushila Karki was formed. It pledged to hold elections within six months, and despite formidable odds, it succeeded in doing so.

The challenges were immense. During the September protests, the police, who are in the first line of electoral duties, had been badly demoralized, some of their weapons were looted, and many prisoners had escaped. The older political parties were unsure whether they would be accommodated in the new political process and were hesitant to take part in the elections. Yet the Karki government overcame these challenges and conducted the polls.

Now it appears that the RSP will win a thumping majority.

However, it would not be entirely accurate to say that the RSP as an organization achieved this victory. A more precise description would be that the immense popularity of Shah, who joined the RSP only at the end of 2025, propelled the party to unprecedented heights.

That it was more a mandate for one person than for a party is borne out by surveys and polls carried out before the election. Many of the responders who said they would stamp on the RSP’s “bell” icon were not even aware of who was representing the party in their constituency. All they knew was that Shah had joined the party and as such they would support it.  

Shah’s popular public image was not an accident. While he served as the mayor of Kathmandu, the national capital, he carefully cultivated an air of mystery. He rarely engaged with the media and interacted with the public only sporadically through social media. This helped create a strong aura around him. As a mayor, he developed an image as a competent, no-nonsense administrator who believed in getting things done.

When he joined the RSP, the party naturally benefited from this image.

Previously, the party’s chairman Rabi Lamichhane had been embroiled in various corruption allegations, and he is in fact still battling multiple court cases across Nepal. But when Shah joined the party and was projected as its prime ministerial candidate, many voters overlooked Lamichhane’s controversies and rallied behind the RSP.

Although turnout of around 58 percent was somewhat lower than Nepal’s usual standard, it can still be interpreted as a strong mandate for change. One interpretation of lower turnout is that many disillusioned supporters of the established parties chose to stay home. 

Behind the RSP’s Success 

Besides Shah’s cultivated personal image, several factors explain the RSP’s remarkable performance. 

The desire for change had been bubbling under the surface. Nepalis had grown deeply frustrated with the old political elite – particularly the leaders of the three major parties who rotated in power for decades. Governments changed, but the same leaders repeatedly returned as prime ministers.

This created a stagnant political environment. Corruption flourished and accountability weakened, and young people became increasingly disillusioned with politics. The Gen Z uprising was the clearest expression of this frustration. 

Following the election, the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML), the two biggest parties in the erstwhile parliament, have been significantly weakened. This represents a profound shift in Nepali politics, which has been dominated by these two parties since the 1990 political change. 

There was also a desire for stability. Governments in Nepal have often lasted only one or two years. Although laws were changed to encourage stability, they have not worked as intended. This time, voters appeared willing to give a strong mandate to a single party so it could govern for a full five-year term.

Another advantage for the RSP was its relative newness. Formed only three years ago, it was not widely seen as part of the old establishment – even though it had briefly participated in government.

When Balendra Shah joined the party, it suddenly came to be viewed as a vehicle for the aspirations of young Nepalis – a fresh political force capable of challenging the old guard.

Ideology also seemed to matter less to voters this time. Parties such as the Congress and CPN-UML represent distinct ideological traditions – liberal democracy and communism, respectively – but many voters appeared to conclude that ideology mattered little if corruption and incompetence persisted regardless of who governed.

Instead, voters chose a leader perceived as clean and effective.

Challenges for the New Government 

The new government will be judged on several key fronts.

First, it must address the demands of the Gen Z protesters. A commission had been formed to investigate the suppression of the protests, and its recommendations include prosecuting those responsible – including CPN-UML chair K.P. Sharma Oli, who was the prime minister at the time of the uprising. Now it would be up to the RSP-led government to implement the recommendations. 

Second, the RSP’s credibility rests heavily on its clean image, particularly the reputation of Shah. The party will be judged on whether it can avoid the corruption scandals that plagued previous governments. The RSP has promised to probe major corruption cases dating back to 1990. Yet there is also the risk of a political witch hunt if anti-corruption efforts are pursued too aggressively.

Third, economic development and job creation will be crucial metrics of progress for the new government. Unlike traditional parties, the RSP does not have a strong ideological foundation. Its guiding philosophy can be described as developmentalism – the belief that Nepal must create jobs and opportunities so that millions of young Nepalis do not have to leave the country to work abroad.

Fourth, as the parliament will be without a strong opposition, there is a risk of the RSP trying to ram through its agenda. With a two-thirds majority, it could for instance try to further dilute the power of provinces, the middle tier of the three-tier federal model, which the RSP has traditionally seen as expensive and ineffective. This could jeopardize the whole federal project.  

But the biggest risk for the RSP government may come from within the party. Nepal has seen majority governments collapse many times before due to internal rivalries and ego clashes. Party insiders already talk of growing rift between Shah and RSP chair Lamichhane, two larger-than-life personalities. They could each try to claim credit for the overwhelming mandate for the RSP and as such make a claim for the country’s top executive post. This in turn could upset the pre-poll understanding that Shah will look after government affairs, while Lamichhane will concentrate his energy on building the party.  

Another question is what will happen to the corruption cases against Lamichhane. If the government puts pressure on the courts to drop them, it could undermine the RSP’s own anti-corruption narrative.

The International Scene

Internationally, Shah will inherit a relatively favorable environment. India appears positive about the RSP’s electoral performance. If it wanted one thing from the election, it was to see the diminishment of the CPN-UML under Oli, who in recent times has had testy ties with Nepal’s southern neighbor. New Delhi had increasingly come to see the four-time communist prime minister as “Beijing’s puppet.” With Oli now out of the picture, India will be more amenable to engaging with the new government.   

China may be more skeptical of the recent turn of things in Kathmandu. During the election campaign, the manifesto of Shah had conspicuously dropped the project for a China-funded industrial park in his constituency near the Indian border, which some observers interpreted as a nod toward India. (Meanwhile, Oli, Shah’s opponent in the same constituency, had made the park, which was to be built as a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a plank of his electoral strategy.) Shah’s decision may have raised concerns in Beijing.

China has also traditionally preferred to have strong communist parties in Nepal. Now, all of the country’s major communist outfits stand diminished. For the next five years, Beijing may have no option but to try to work with the RSP government.  

For the United States, despite random allegations of CIA involvement in the uprising, Washington’s main concern is stability and preventing Nepal from inching closer to Beijing. In this, its interests in Nepal seem to increasingly align with those of India. This India-U.S. understanding will give the new government in Nepal some diplomatic room to maneuver but it could also disrupt its geopolitical balancing act.  

These calculations aside, all three major external actors in Nepal – India, China, and the United States – had strongly supported the holding of timely elections. They will all welcome the emergence of a stable government, at least at the start.

Even critics of the RSP acknowledge that Nepal needed a break with the past. The old political class had dominated the system for decades, and many believed meaningful change could not come through normal electoral processes. Now it has. 

The new parliament, with around 40 percent of its representatives under the age of 40, will be distinctly younger than the one it replaces. This is not only in keeping with the demand of the Gen Z movement. It is also reflective of a young country whose median age is just 26. Young people in Nepal will now see their ideas and concerns reflected during lawmaking. By the same token, young Nepalis who were increasingly disillusioned with politics are likely to take a renewed interest in it. 

For their part, the traditional mainstays of Nepali politics, the Congress and the CPN-UML, will now have to undertake some soul-searching. They will have to pick new leaders and rebrand themselves. These traditional parties are far from finished. Both parties retain strong, nationwide organizational networks. They were caught off guard by the rapid political changes following the uprising and had little time to regroup. Their adaptation to the changed reality and reemergence in national politics will be salubrious developments for the health of Nepali democracy.  

Moreover, by capturing the imagination of all of Nepal’s diverse ethnic and geographic groups, something which no other political force had been able to do in recent times, the RSP’s mandate could strengthen national unity. 

Whether the RSP can deliver on its many promises remains to be seen. But one thing is already clear: The March 5 election has fundamentally changed Nepali politics. 

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The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), under Balendra Shah, has achieved what seemed impossible. 

For a long time, it was believed that Nepal’s new mixed electoral system – which combines direct elections for 165 seats and proportional representation for 110 seats, for a total of 275 seats – could not produce a majority government. The assumption was that this system, which supposedly favored smaller parties and contributed to political fragmentation, would inevitably lead to a divided House. 

But Shah entered the scene and upended that assumption, almost overnight. His party, the RSP, is now expected to secure not just a simple majority but a two-thirds majority (sufficient even to initiate the process of constitution amendment). The last time a political party in Nepal garnered such a thumping mandate was during the country’s first democratic elections back in 1959.

The March 5 elections were held against the backdrop of the Gen Z uprising that took place in Nepal on September 8-9, 2025. The uprising was largely a result of widespread anger against corruption and represented a collective rebuke from the younger generation against the entrenched political elite. It was also fueled by resentment over attempts to restrict social media space.

The uprising was spontaneous and surprising. The state attempted to suppress it brutally. In the process, 77 people were killed and the government of K.P. Sharma Oli was overthrown. 

Following this, an interim government under former Chief Justice Sushila Karki was formed. It pledged to hold elections within six months, and despite formidable odds, it succeeded in doing so.

The challenges were immense. During the September protests, the police, who are in the first line of electoral duties, had been badly demoralized, some of their weapons were looted, and many prisoners had escaped. The older political parties were unsure whether they would be accommodated in the new political process and were hesitant to take part in the elections. Yet the Karki government overcame these challenges and conducted the polls.

Now it appears that the RSP will win a thumping majority.

However, it would not be entirely accurate to say that the RSP as an organization achieved this victory. A more precise description would be that the immense popularity of Shah, who joined the RSP only at the end of 2025, propelled the party to unprecedented heights.

That it was more a mandate for one person than for a party is borne out by surveys and polls carried out before the election. Many of the responders who said they would stamp on the RSP’s “bell” icon were not even aware of who was representing the party in their constituency. All they knew was that Shah had joined the party and as such they would support it.  

Shah’s popular public image was not an accident. While he served as the mayor of Kathmandu, the national capital, he carefully cultivated an air of mystery. He rarely engaged with the media and interacted with the public only sporadically through social media. This helped create a strong aura around him. As a mayor, he developed an image as a competent, no-nonsense administrator who believed in getting things done.

When he joined the RSP, the party naturally benefited from this image.

Previously, the party’s chairman Rabi Lamichhane had been embroiled in various corruption allegations, and he is in fact still battling multiple court cases across Nepal. But when Shah joined the party and was projected as its prime ministerial candidate, many voters overlooked Lamichhane’s controversies and rallied behind the RSP.

Although turnout of around 58 percent was somewhat lower than Nepal’s usual standard, it can still be interpreted as a strong mandate for change. One interpretation of lower turnout is that many disillusioned supporters of the established parties chose to stay home. 

Behind the RSP’s Success 

Besides Shah’s cultivated personal image, several factors explain the RSP’s remarkable performance. 

The desire for change had been bubbling under the surface. Nepalis had grown deeply frustrated with the old political elite – particularly the leaders of the three major parties who rotated in power for decades. Governments changed, but the same leaders repeatedly returned as prime ministers.

This created a stagnant political environment. Corruption flourished and accountability weakened, and young people became increasingly disillusioned with politics. The Gen Z uprising was the clearest expression of this frustration. 

Following the election, the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML), the two biggest parties in the erstwhile parliament, have been significantly weakened. This represents a profound shift in Nepali politics, which has been dominated by these two parties since the 1990 political change. 

There was also a desire for stability. Governments in Nepal have often lasted only one or two years. Although laws were changed to encourage stability, they have not worked as intended. This time, voters appeared willing to give a strong mandate to a single party so it could govern for a full five-year term.

Another advantage for the RSP was its relative newness. Formed only three years ago, it was not widely seen as part of the old establishment – even though it had briefly participated in government.

When Balendra Shah joined the party, it suddenly came to be viewed as a vehicle for the aspirations of young Nepalis – a fresh political force capable of challenging the old guard.

Ideology also seemed to matter less to voters this time. Parties such as the Congress and CPN-UML represent distinct ideological traditions – liberal democracy and communism, respectively – but many voters appeared to conclude that ideology mattered little if corruption and incompetence persisted regardless of who governed.

Instead, voters chose a leader perceived as clean and effective.

Challenges for the New Government 

The new government will be judged on several key fronts.

First, it must address the demands of the Gen Z protesters. A commission had been formed to investigate the suppression of the protests, and its recommendations include prosecuting those responsible – including CPN-UML chair K.P. Sharma Oli, who was the prime minister at the time of the uprising. Now it would be up to the RSP-led government to implement the recommendations. 

Second, the RSP’s credibility rests heavily on its clean image, particularly the reputation of Shah. The party will be judged on whether it can avoid the corruption scandals that plagued previous governments. The RSP has promised to probe major corruption cases dating back to 1990. Yet there is also the risk of a political witch hunt if anti-corruption efforts are pursued too aggressively.

Third, economic development and job creation will be crucial metrics of progress for the new government. Unlike traditional parties, the RSP does not have a strong ideological foundation. Its guiding philosophy can be described as developmentalism – the belief that Nepal must create jobs and opportunities so that millions of young Nepalis do not have to leave the country to work abroad.

Fourth, as the parliament will be without a strong opposition, there is a risk of the RSP trying to ram through its agenda. With a two-thirds majority, it could for instance try to further dilute the power of provinces, the middle tier of the three-tier federal model, which the RSP has traditionally seen as expensive and ineffective. This could jeopardize the whole federal project.  

But the biggest risk for the RSP government may come from within the party. Nepal has seen majority governments collapse many times before due to internal rivalries and ego clashes. Party insiders already talk of growing rift between Shah and RSP chair Lamichhane, two larger-than-life personalities. They could each try to claim credit for the overwhelming mandate for the RSP and as such make a claim for the country’s top executive post. This in turn could upset the pre-poll understanding that Shah will look after government affairs, while Lamichhane will concentrate his energy on building the party.  

Another question is what will happen to the corruption cases against Lamichhane. If the government puts pressure on the courts to drop them, it could undermine the RSP’s own anti-corruption narrative.

The International Scene

Internationally, Shah will inherit a relatively favorable environment. India appears positive about the RSP’s electoral performance. If it wanted one thing from the election, it was to see the diminishment of the CPN-UML under Oli, who in recent times has had testy ties with Nepal’s southern neighbor. New Delhi had increasingly come to see the four-time communist prime minister as “Beijing’s puppet.” With Oli now out of the picture, India will be more amenable to engaging with the new government.   

China may be more skeptical of the recent turn of things in Kathmandu. During the election campaign, the manifesto of Shah had conspicuously dropped the project for a China-funded industrial park in his constituency near the Indian border, which some observers interpreted as a nod toward India. (Meanwhile, Oli, Shah’s opponent in the same constituency, had made the park, which was to be built as a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a plank of his electoral strategy.) Shah’s decision may have raised concerns in Beijing.

China has also traditionally preferred to have strong communist parties in Nepal. Now, all of the country’s major communist outfits stand diminished. For the next five years, Beijing may have no option but to try to work with the RSP government.  

For the United States, despite random allegations of CIA involvement in the uprising, Washington’s main concern is stability and preventing Nepal from inching closer to Beijing. In this, its interests in Nepal seem to increasingly align with those of India. This India-U.S. understanding will give the new government in Nepal some diplomatic room to maneuver but it could also disrupt its geopolitical balancing act.  

These calculations aside, all three major external actors in Nepal – India, China, and the United States – had strongly supported the holding of timely elections. They will all welcome the emergence of a stable government, at least at the start.

Even critics of the RSP acknowledge that Nepal needed a break with the past. The old political class had dominated the system for decades, and many believed meaningful change could not come through normal electoral processes. Now it has. 

The new parliament, with around 40 percent of its representatives under the age of 40, will be distinctly younger than the one it replaces. This is not only in keeping with the demand of the Gen Z movement. It is also reflective of a young country whose median age is just 26. Young people in Nepal will now see their ideas and concerns reflected during lawmaking. By the same token, young Nepalis who were increasingly disillusioned with politics are likely to take a renewed interest in it. 

For their part, the traditional mainstays of Nepali politics, the Congress and the CPN-UML, will now have to undertake some soul-searching. They will have to pick new leaders and rebrand themselves. These traditional parties are far from finished. Both parties retain strong, nationwide organizational networks. They were caught off guard by the rapid political changes following the uprising and had little time to regroup. Their adaptation to the changed reality and reemergence in national politics will be salubrious developments for the health of Nepali democracy.  

Moreover, by capturing the imagination of all of Nepal’s diverse ethnic and geographic groups, something which no other political force had been able to do in recent times, the RSP’s mandate could strengthen national unity. 

Whether the RSP can deliver on its many promises remains to be seen. But one thing is already clear: The March 5 election has fundamentally changed Nepali politics. 

Biswas Baral is the Editor of The Kathmandu Post and a columnist for The Diplomat. He writes on Nepal’s domestic politics and foreign policy.

2026 Nepal general election

Rastriya Swatantra Party

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