ASEAN Beat | Politics | Southeast Asia

Why UMNO is the Biggest Beneficiary of Malaysia’s PAS-Bersatu Divorce

The fracturing of the opposition camp could give Malaysia’s grand old party a springboard back to federal prominence.

Supporters of Malaysia’s Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition attend a coalition launch event in Iskandar Puteri, Johor State, Malaysia, Jun. 7, 2026.

The decision by Malaysia’s Islamist opposition party, PAS, to sever its six-year political alliance with Bersatu ahead of the Johor state election could prove to be the biggest political gift to the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) in years.

While the immediate focus has been on the future of the opposition bloc, the more consequential development may be the opportunity created for UMNO to rebuild its political dominance among Malay-Muslim voters, after a decade of declining electoral fortunes. The Johor election, widely regarded as a bellwether for national politics, could become a launchpad for UMNO’s broader resurgence ahead of the 16th General Election, which is due by 2028.

Barisan Nasional (BN), of which UMNO is the principal component, enters the Johor contest from a position of strength. The coalition secured a two-thirds majority in the outgoing state assembly at the last Johor election in 2022, winning 40 of the 56 seats. More recently, BN Chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi declared that the coalition intends to contest the next general election on its own strength, signaling a growing confidence within the party.

A comfortable victory in Johor would reinforce that confidence. Zahid himself has described the election as a potential catalyst for a nationwide “blue wave” comeback, restoring BN as a dominant force in Malaysian politics.

The PAS-Bersatu split has strengthened UMNO’s hand in two important ways. First, it weakens the opposition by removing the partnership that combined PAS’s formidable grassroots machinery with Bersatu’s Malay nationalist appeal. Second, it reopens the possibility of cooperation between PAS and UMNO under a revived Muafakat Nasional framework. Muafakat Nasional was an alliance formed between PAS and UMNO in 2019-2022.

Speculation about a PAS-UMNO rapprochement has intensified since the so-called “Perlis debacle” of December 2025, when the state’s Chief Minister Shukri Ramli, a member of PAS, was forced from office following the withdrawal of support by several........

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