Sweden’s criminal justice system was once held up as an example of moderation – focusing on rehabilitation and minimising the use of imprisonment. But the Scandinavian nation could soon join countries such as Russia, Belarus and Nicaragua as a world leader in punitiveness.

Throughout 1990s and up to the mid-2010s, Sweden had a total prison population of 4,000-6,000 people. But over the last decade, the prison population has increased to over 9,000 people in 2025.

This figure clearly sets Sweden apart from its Nordic neighbours. It has reached an imprisonment rate of over 100 prisoners per 100,000 inhabitants. Denmark, Finland and Norway have all remained around 50-75.

We think we know Sweden – a peaceful nation grounded in social democracy, natural beauty, IKEA and Abba. But in 2026, is this still the real Sweden? Ahead of the country’s general election on September 13, The Conversation UK has teamed up with its Swedish partner universities for a series of articles examining why this small nation remains so fascinating.

But recent estimates indicate that the most radical increase is yet to come. According to the Swedish Prison and Probation Service, the prison population could increase to more than 30,000 in the coming decades, equivalent to just under 300 prisoners per 100,000........

© The Conversation