ITV’s newly released documentary Undercover: A Year in Reform has raised fresh questions about Nigel Farage’s party, after covertly recorded footage showed councillors and candidates making racist, Islamophobic, misogynistic and violent remarks. The investigation also exposed the party’s vetting procedures and internal discussions about controversial candidates.

The immediate consequences have included resignations and suspensions of Reform UK councillors and candidates. But whether the documentary’s revelations will translate into lost votes is less certain.

The documentary’s significance lies partly in the questions it raises about organisational responsibility. Reform has said it has improved its vetting procedures since the 2024 general election and insists that there is “no room for racism” in its ranks. Farage, meanwhile, has argued that parties cannot vet people for everything they might say in the future.

The disciplinary position is not uniform. According to ITV’s published account of what has happened to those councillors and candidates featured in the documentary, several have since resigned from their posts or the party, while others remain in place.

Aspiring parliamentary candidate Jason Powell was suspended by Reform after recordings emerged of him advocating the building of concentration camps to house migrants who arrive on small boats. He also said that Muslims cannot be British.

The revelations raise a broader question. Do voters regard the remarks of Reform councillors and candidates as as isolated acts of misconduct, or evidence of a problem with the party itself?

The gap between perceptions and votes

Polling from before the documentary’s release offers a useful starting point. In........

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