On the eve of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech. Several things stood out. He started by discussing the fundamental threat posed to Russia by “the West”.

This, he claimed, included the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which he emphasised was becoming more dangerous, threatening Russian security.

Putin also, falsely, accused Ukraine of genocide, of killing millions of people who lived in the eastern region known as Donbas. He stated Ukraine would undoubtedly bring war to (the recently illegally annexed) Crimea and kill people there, something Russia had to stop.

What happened next is well known. Thousands of Ukrainian (and Russian) people have been killed. Millions have been displaced. Growing evidence suggests Russia has committed genocide in occupied Ukrainian territories.

Were there clues in Putin’s speech about what was about to happen? Our recent research suggests the answer is yes.

At a moment where mass atrocities are continuing and escalating in multiple conflicts, finding ways to spot these warning signs earlier could help mitigate or prevent future catastrophes.

We use a long-established definition in political science and define genocide as:

the promotion, execution or implied consent of sustained policies by governing elites or their agents that are intended to destroy – in whole or part – a communal, political or politicised ethnic group.

the promotion, execution or implied consent of sustained policies by governing elites or their agents that are intended to........

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