Smoky summers are now the norm in Canada. Over the past summer, wildfires burned approximately 4.5 million hectares, more than 33,750 people were evacuated and millions were exposed to hazardous air pollutants, which even exacerbated tensions between Canada and the United States.

These impacts were modest in comparison to 2023, the most destructive wildfire season in Canadian history, which caused short- to long-term economic consequences that could reach several billion dollars. The ongoing El Niño may lead to another destructive wildfire season next year.

Climate change is making the hot, dry conditions that favour wildfires more common and lengthening the wildfire season. New research by colleagues and me estimates how climate change will influence the economic costs of Canadian wildfires as well as the global burden of their carbon dioxide emissions over the 21st century. The scale of future wildfire impacts depends on the choices that we make today about fossil fuels.

Future wildfire costs for Canadians

We used a new boreal wildfire-vegetation model that accounts for the complex interactions between weather, forest growth, lightning and human ignitions, and suppression. We compared a world without human-caused climate change to possible futures with differing levels of........

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