Russia’s parliamentary elections will take place on Sept. 18-20, 2026, amid the ongoing war with Ukraine. Given the backdrop of an energy crisis, battlefield failures in Ukraine and fears of more national conscription at home, you might think that the Kremlin should have reason for concern.

Yet few observers believe the result is in doubt: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party will undoubtedly win. Anything less will demonstrate societal disloyalty to the government and opposition to the Ukraine War. And the Kremlin will not allow that.

In 2020, I wrote a book that demonstrated how the Kremlin does not have to engage in massive vote fraud to win a parliamentary majority. Russia’s election managers have consistently used coercive tactics and pressured business and bureaucratic managers to ensure workers support the government.

To me, the real indicators of public support for the government are the vote margin for Putin’s party and the extent to which the Kremlin places its thumb on the scale to maintain its party’s two-thirds majority of parliamentary seats.

The Kremlin’s tall order

Russians are no doubt entering the vote feeling gloomy about the country’s prospects. A war in Ukraine meant to last only days has dragged on for years and is increasing costs on Russian civilians. Ukrainian drone attacks have targeted Russian energy and retail infrastructure; casualty figures are far higher than thought possible at the beginning of the conflict; inflation is rising; and in many regions, unemployment is also increasing.

United Russia’s popularity has been hovering around 32% in public opinion polls. It is the lowest figure since the full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. And even then, the number is likely inflated by respondents’ fear of revealing their opposition.

Over the course of 20 years, the........

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