The Belarusian dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, spoke at a ceremony for military graduates and officers on July 6. He predictably mentioned the war in neighbouring Ukraine. “No one is going to send you into this slaughter,” he assured them, “we do not need war; it is tragic that it is going on in Ukraine.”

Yet, arguably, Lukashenko has in fact needed the war. After almost being toppled by mass street protests in August 2020 following a flagrantly rigged presidential election, it was Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year and a half later that finally helped him cow his domestic opponents. He claimed to offer stability where political unrest could turn Belarus into another Ukraine.

Nowadays, however, the opposite might be the case. It is the exiled Belarusian opposition that could be helped by the tragedy in Ukraine, with Lukashenko facing reported pressure from Russia to become more deeply involved in the war and Ukraine ratcheting up the pressure on him not to.

Belarus is already involved in the war in many ways. Russia used Belarusian territory as a staging area for its full-scale invasion in February 2022 and, throughout that year, fired missiles into Ukraine from Belarus. Ever since, Lukashenko has sought to take advantage of the conflict while keeping his own troops safely in their barracks.

The war has boosted an economy weighed down by western sanctions. Belarusian factories produce........

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