May 7 will go down as the worst election in the history of Welsh Labour. More than a century of electoral dominance ended with the party sitting in opposition in the Senedd (Welsh parliament) for the first time.

Given Welsh Labour’s once-hegemonic position, the scale of the defeat is astonishing. This was not simply a loss, but a collapse. The party now holds just nine seats in the Senedd, with few new figures emerging to shape its future direction.

The unavoidable question is where Welsh Labour goes from here, and whether it can recover.

The answer depends not simply on new policies or a change of leader, but on whether the party is capable of a genuine reckoning with both its ideological direction and the consequences of nearly three decades in government. That process will be difficult while Welsh Labour remains divided between its Westminster wing in London and its devolved leadership in Cardiff Bay.

Adaptation and exhaustion

No party in the democratic world has enjoyed such sustained dominance as Labour in Wales. As the political scientist T.J. Pempel has argued, dominant parties survive by remaining flexible and evolving into broad “catch-all” movements capable of appealing to diverse groups of voters.

For years, Welsh Labour did just that. The party normalised a form of progressive Welsh identity politics that stopped short of supporting independence, while reshaping debates around devolution, national identity and governance.........

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