The 2025 Australian federal election was defined by its many shock results, from the Labor Party’s thumping victory to the Liberals’ considerable losses.

Another defining feature of this election were the setbacks experienced by the Greens, who lost three seats in the House of Representatives. This included their safest seat, Melbourne, held by leader Adam Bandt.

With the Liberals’ attempt to make sense of their 2025 election loss recently leaked, what lessons did the Greens take from their results?

The Greens wasted no time with their review, finalising it just three months after the election. However, as it wasn’t widely circulated, it has flown under under the radar. So what did it say?

The puzzle behind the numbers

The Greens experienced an election result that, at first glance, is rather confusing.

On the one hand, the party received an almost identical primary vote to 2022. That was the “greenslide” election where the party won three additional lower house seats.

On the other, the 2025 vote undid the party’s progress, with the Greens losing three of four seats.

Part of the explanation for this puzzle is the change in preference flows to the Greens that occurred when the Labor vote surged.

In seats where Labor, the Liberals and the Greens are all contesting, and they all get decent shares of the vote, the strength of the vote for the Greens candidate is often less important than whether the Labor candidate remains in the top two once the final three candidates are determined. This is because only preferences of those from third place on are distributed.

When Labor is in third place, preferences of voters who tend to prefer the Greens........

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