Nearly 10 months after agreeing to the first phase of a ceasefire, Israel and Hamas are being compelled – somewhat reluctantly – to move to “phase 2.”

On July 30, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that Hamas had accepted to disarm and transfer security and civilian affairs in the Gaza Strip to a technocratic Palestinian administration – a key requisite of phase 2 of the U.S.-brokered peace plan for Gaza, along with the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the enclave. Trump’s Board of Peace published a road map the following day for how it is to be achieved.

To Trump, it was a a “major milestone” toward lasting peace. But as an expert on Palestinian politics, I see major impediments to implementation. The move to “phase 2” comes despite “phase 1” being less than wholly successful. Since the ceasefire was signed on Oct 9, 2025, Israel has killed more than 1,100 Palestinians and shifted the “yellow line” behind which its forces were due to withdraw from an agreed-upon 53% of Gaza territory to now over 65%. Meanwhile, the daily life conditions for Palestinians in the enclave have largely not improved.

Moreover, it is unclear how committed Hamas and Israel are to the next stage. For now, neither can agree on a sequence: Hamas says no disarmament without Israeli withdrawal; Israel insists no withdrawal until disarmament.

With little progress in improving living conditions in Gaza and with Israel continuing to kill its operatives, Hamas has faced intense pressure in recent months to make further concessions. Amid a reportedly heated internal deliberation, Hamas decided that disarmament appears now as the least costly path for its movement – and for the 2 million Palestinians stuck in Gaza.

The breakthrough required intensive pressure by outside mediators from Egypt, Turkey and Qatar on Hamas to accept the Board of Peace High Commissioner Nickolay Mladenov’s road map to phase 2.

It also only happened after Hamas had completed its........

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