Early voting is now in full swing for the coming Farrer election on May 9. The by-election is being framed as a temperature check of the right in federal politics, given the rise of One Nation and the collapse of the Liberal and National parties.

The competition in the southwestern New South Wales seat is mainly between a high-profile independent, Michelle Milthorpe, and One Nation’s David Farley. Key campaign issues include health, water management, climate projects, and the current oil shock and ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

In this podcast, we spoke to veteran election analyst Antony Green about why this by-election is so nationally significant, including ahead of Victoria’s coming state election.

We also spoke to Milthorpe and, for One Nation’s perspective, Barnaby Joyce. (Farley, who spoke about being One Nation’s local candidate when we visited Farrer last month, declined an interview.)

‘A complete diversion’ from history: Green

Antony Green has covered more than 90 Australian elections over nearly four decades. He highlighted how unusual this Farrer by-election is, contrasting it with generations of elections before it.

Historically, it’s significant. We’ve had a party system now for eight decades – a Labor Party, a Liberal Party, a National Party – they’re the ones that nearly always have competed to form government to win almost all seats. But this by-election, it looks like a breakout: a contest between an independent and One Nation. That’s a complete diversion from the tradition of Australian political history. It’s also significant for what’s going to happen at the next election, because Farrer is a very rural seat. It’s the sort of seat Labor rarely polls well in, and they’re not even contesting the by-election. If the Coalition parties can’t win a seat like Farrer […] what are their hopes of winning government at the next election?

Historically, it’s significant. We’ve had a party system now for eight decades – a Labor Party, a Liberal Party, a National Party – they’re the ones that nearly always have competed to form government to win almost all seats.

But this by-election, it looks like a breakout: a contest between an independent and One Nation. That’s a complete diversion from the tradition of Australian political history.

It’s also significant for what’s going to happen at the next election, because Farrer is a very rural seat. It’s the sort of seat........

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