Matt Canavan, who confirmed this week he’ll seek to move from the Senate to the lower house, will be favourite to win the central Queensland seat of Capricornia, despite One Nation having a solid vote there before the party’s national surge. The bigger question is: how many of his Nationals colleagues will be in the federal parliament when he arrives in the House of Representatives in 2028?

For decades, commentators have predicted the likely demise of the Nationals. But this time, on present trends, things are serious, especially for the state party in New South Wales, but also federally.

One Nation is marauding through the Nationals’ territory and picking up voting support and enthusiastic new members and volunteers. Was the May Farrer byelection a sign of things to come? Remember the now One Nation southern New South Wales seat was once held by then Nationals leader and deputy prime minister, the late Tim Fischer.

The Nationals’ resilience, or lack thereof, will be tested in two state elections before the 2028 federal election: in Victoria this month and NSW in March. Their fortunes are looking much better in Victoria, where the state Nationals have a distinct identity and One Nation is weaker, than in NSW. In that state, their prospects appear dire, with talk of a near wipeout of their 11 lower house seats. The NSW optional preferential voting system will complicate the Nationals’ challenge.

In Victoria, the Nationals predict they’ll retain most of their nine lower house seats (with one seen at risk) and hope to pick up Bendigo East, from which former premier Jacinta Allan is retiring. (Nationals sources say polling shows the name recognition of their Victorian MPs can be worth around 10%.)

Election analyst Antony Green points........

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