As Democrats and Republicans look at the overwhelming results of the 2026 midterm election, it’s worth remembering what has become a political axiom in America: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Democratic strategist James Carville famously said that to presidential candidate Bill Clinton in 1992, but he might have said “it’s energy prices” instead. The cost of energy underlies much of the economy, making energy and politics inseparable, especially when gasoline prices rise.

Midterm elections have historically been difficult for incumbent presidents and often shift the balance of power in Washington, D.C.

Many factors affecting gasoline prices are beyond a president’s or Congress’s control. Prices for crude oil and petroleum products such as gasoline are set on global markets as the results of economic forces of supply and demand. Even the companies that produce oil don’t have as much influence as people might think, because of how that oil gets to refineries: Over 60% of the world’s crude oil is transported by ocean tankers, with 20% of global supplies traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed, or nearly so, for much of 2026 as the conflict with Iran drags on.

When energy prices rise, other prices, such as food, follow. Sudden spikes in gasoline prices can contribute to higher inflation, both regionally and nationally.

Voters pay attention to those changes, and incumbents are less likely to win reelection. For the 2026 midterm election, gasoline prices were the highest of any previous election. That put Republicans in the precarious position of defending their record.

Four American presidents – Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and Joe Biden – confronted the consequences of severe inflation and high fuel prices during midterm elections.

Oil embargo, Nixon and Ford

Richard Nixon was the first........

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