It took one night in Ceuta to end a relatively quiet summer on Europe’s southern border. Over 70,000 people entered the Spanish enclave from Morocco between July 30 and 31, most of them swimming around the heavily guarded border fences.

For comparison, at the peak of the 2015-16 migration crisis, Italy received over 180,000 irregular migrants across an entire year. This was roughly a third of Italy’s busiest year, compressed into a single day.

Most of those who crossed have since returned to Morocco. But the episode has already become an EU-wide political crisis. By the end of the day, Italy had suspended its Schengen free-movement agreement with Spain.

This choice was primarily political, but short-sighted. It ignored the fact that most people crossing at Ceuta have little interest in going to Italy. And just as new EU migration rules mandating “flexible solidarity” come into force, it sets a precedent for turning away from frontline states – Italy included – the next time they face migratory pressure.

Who is to blame for Ceuta?

Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, attributed the sudden inflow to smuggling gangs exploiting a recent ruling by his country’s supreme court, which bars authorities from summarily returning migrants intercepted at sea.

Rightwing politicians and commentators instead pointed to Spain’s recent amnesty of nearly a million people. However, academic studies are sceptical that such policies act as pull factors for migrants.

Either way, a crossing of this scale and speed would arguably not have been possible without Morocco’s cooperation.........

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