The trade war with the United States has put manufacturing at the centre of Canada’s economic agenda by exposing its dependence on a single trading partner.

U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, automobiles and other products have disrupted cross-border supply chains, reduced exports in key industries and increased costs for manufacturers, while leaving businesses uncertain about future trade conditions.

In response, the federal government is trying to strengthen Canada’s domestic industrial capacity and reduce its reliance on the American market.

Read more: Tariffs are reshaping Canadian manufacturing, but not all workers are being impacted the same way

A Buy Canadian policy now prioritizes Canadian suppliers and domestic materials in federal procurement, while Ottawa’s Defence Industrial Strategy aims to create 125,000 jobs by expanding domestic defence production. Prime Minister Mark Carney has also pledged to double non-U.S. exports within a decade.

However, these initiatives say little about the people who will do the work. Canada’s industrial ambitions depend on having a skilled and available workforce, yet the tariff shock is affecting who works in Canadian factories.

Our analysis of Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey suggests immigrant workers are bearing a disproportionate share of the employment losses.

A recomposition of the factory floor

Manufacturing employment fell by only about three per cent between January 2025 and April 2026. But Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey shows a more substantial change in who holds those jobs.

Monthly estimates for smaller population groups can fluctuate considerably, but the pattern points to a growing disadvantage for immigrant workers.

Immigrants’ share of manufacturing employment slipped from just over 30 per cent to under 28 per cent by December 2025, and has recovered only slightly since.

The losses have come in waves. In 2025, immigrant workers accounted for a growing share of manufacturing job losses, before........

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