Whatever happens at tomorrow morning’s urgent caucus meeting to address speculation about his leadership, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has had a very bad few days already.

It began with the National Party leader apologising for chastising a business gathering about dependency on government. He then took his caucus colleagues by surprise with an impromptu “promise” to hold a referendum on the electoral system.

His mishaps have earned comparisons with the fictional David Brent of The Office, and media speculation about a leadership spill ramped up yet again.

Luxon had already put his own leadership to a caucus vote in April. The problem – then and now – is that the party has no stellar alternative leader waiting in the wings, unlike Labour in 2017 when it elevated deputy Jacinda Ardern to the top spot within seven weeks of polling day.

Strategically, it can make more sense for an up-and-coming politician to let their leader take the fall at an election, then make their move to become party leader. That way they get to enjoy a spell in opposition to consolidate and differentiate themselves from an incumbent prime minister.

Ardern’s rise in 2017 was a stunning last-minute gamble that paid off. But haste didn’t serve her career well in the long run. Ideally, contenders within the National........

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