The Iran crisis is reshaping how the world produces, uses and secures energy. This is no temporary shock. It has become a structural stress test of energy systems, industrial production and government strategy.

We’ve seen this in the recent past: household energy bills in 2024 were still about 4% higher than in 2019, even after the 2022 global energy crisis had eased (annual bills were up 16% at the peak). That crisis was driven by a combination of post-pandemic demand recovery, tight energy supplies and wider geopolitical disruption, including the Ukraine war, which pushed energy prices sharply higher.

Affordability remains fragile because many lower-income households still spend a disproportionately large share of their income on energy. It’s also a problem for business. Sustained energy costs continue to burden European manufacturing, for instance, affecting industrial competitiveness and long-term economic resilience.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global electricity demand will have grown 3.3% in 2025 and then 3.7% in 2026. The pressure from the 2022 crisis therefore shifted rather than disappeared.

International fuel markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical shocks, especially when households and industry depend on imported gas and oil. Around 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This highlights how concentrated supply routes can transmit instability rapidly across global markets, causing not just rising energy prices but knock-on effects like increased fertiliser costs.

It’s also no longer just a question of fuel supply. Unpredictable, extreme weather conditions are compounding the problem of volatile prices of fossil fuels. Heatwaves raise........

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