Alberta’s separation debate has entered a new phase. Elections Alberta recently declared the independence petition successful, with 222,597 verified signatures, above the 177,732 required.

Further steps await Alberta’s Court of Appeal review of a lower court decision that invalidated the petition’s approval.

Separately, Alberta has scheduled a non-binding referendum for Oct. 19 on remaining in Canada or starting the constitutional process toward a binding separation vote.

Much of the debate focuses on how much money Albertans send to the federal government. A 2026 Library of Parliament study indicates that Alberta is a net contributor, having made the largest provincial net contribution in 2024. But that figure captures only a part of the economic picture. Less obvious aspects may be more important.

My working paper constructs a broader balance sheet. It estimates gains of $1,075 per resident from taxes and pension against losses of $6,996 in obligations. In other words, negotiated independence would cost more than it saves.

Nonetheless, these results should be read with caution. They are estimates based on reasonable assumptions about future economic scenarios, not statistical forecasts.

More than a stay-or-leave choice

Secession, the formal withdrawal of a region from a country, involves trade-offs. A larger population provides broader markets and shares the costs and risks of public programs. In exchange, independence provides control and policy more responsive to local preferences.

In Canada, separation would require........

© The Conversation