In the annual State of the Union address in late February, the US president, Donald Trump, declared: “This is the golden age of America.” In a lengthy and wide-ranging address, the president told his fellow Americans that the nation was “bigger, better, richer and stronger” than ever before.

The US economy, and specifically the cost of living, was the key issue with voters in the 2024 presidential election. Exit polls from key states showed that, among voters who said the economy was the most important issue for them, 90% voted for Trump.

However, results from a more recent poll suggest voters are not happy with his economic agenda. Among the more than 2,500 adults surveyed, 57% said they disapprove of the way the president is managing the economy, 65% disapprove of the way he is handling inflation and 64% disapprove of how he is handing tariffs.

With mid-term elections coming in November, the economy is likely to continue to be a key factor with US voters. So are the president’s bold claims supported by the data?

On the president’s claim that inflation is “plummeting”, he can indeed claim success. At the start of his second term in January 2025, inflation was 3%. By January 2026, this had dropped to 2.4% and is now closing in on the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve, the US’s central bank. The rate of increase in prices is slowing and this........

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