President Donald Trump made headlines early in his second term when he ordered that affirmative action programs be dismantled. Less noticed was the fact that quite a few states had already eliminated such preferences for contractors, in some cases years ago.

This record can now provide some answers as to how businesses owned and operated by underrepresented groups actually fare after these measures take effect.

I’m an economist who has researched the consequences of state bans on affirmative action, and I found a mixed picture with some surprising conclusions. Notably, these measures did reduce the average head count among minority- and women-owned contractors. But in general, they didn’t push these companies to close shop.

This research is important not just because affirmative action is so politically sensitive. It matters because of the vast amount of money at stake: The U.S. spends about 10% of its gross domestic product on federal and state contractors, buying everything from pencils to new missile systems.

Action at the state level

For decades, the government often sought to support........

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