Iran’s threat to target American warships with an enhanced ballistic missile appears to mark a new and potentially more dangerous phase of the Middle East conflict, six months in. Tehran says its solid-fuel Qassem Basir missile enables it to “take action against any threat, even before it is carried out”. Reports have suggested that the Qassem Basir was the missile used in tests Iran claimed to have carried out against US warships on September 5.

Washington acknowledged an Iranian attack on its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington and a guided-missile destroyer near the Strait of Hormuz. But it said it was unclear whether the new missile had been used and confirmed its vessels had evaded the attack. But the more assertive rhetoric coming out of the Islamic Republic suggests it is moving beyond the largely retaliatory strategy that characterised much of the war and is increasingly prepared to raise the stakes itself.

Tehran has also announced it is preparing to sign an agreement with Oman which would establish a new corridor through the Strait of Hormuz extending out into the Persian Gulf, although this has yet to be confirmed. Taken together, these developments suggest that Iran is no longer simply responding to escalation – it is increasingly trying to drive it.

This does not mean Iran has the upper hand militarily. Far from it. But Tehran appears to have concluded that prolonging and widening the conflict can improve its bargaining position by making the war increasingly expensive for the US and the rest of the world.

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