Our study of agri-food systems suggests that the most powerful resilience levers are not found inside single firms, but in the supply chain’s ability to adapt, collaborate, and move quickly as a network.

Europe’s food system is entering an era of permanent stress. Climate change is already disrupting the food chain, from farms to storage, processing, and distribution. The latest FAO–WMO assessment warns that extreme heat is pushing agri-food systems to the brink.

Against this backdrop of compounding disruptions, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may therefore feel like relief. But for food systems, reopening should not be mistaken for a return to normal. It is the moment when governments and firms decide whether they have learned from the disruption or simply waited for it to pass. While historically viewed through the lens of energy security, the recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz exposed its critical role as a fragile chokepoint for the global agri-food system. Fuel, LNG, fertiliser-linked inputs, refrigerated transport, packaging and port capacity all connect the vital waterway to food prices and availability.

Even when vessels start moving again, costs, delays and risk perceptions can travel through the chain for weeks or months.

Genuine resilience goes far beyond reactive firefighting when a disruption hits; it’s about using the downtime to build adaptive and transformative capabilities to be able to better cope with the increasing uncertainty.

These make one question urgent: when Hormuz reopens, what should the agri-food sector fix before attention moves elsewhere?

Many firms still answer that question from inside their own walls. After all they have the most visibility over their own parameters. They look at inventories, backup plans, internal processes, and financial reserves. Our research, however, suggests that they are not the main engine of resilience in agri-food supply chains.

In our recent study, we examined 19 resilience capabilities across three levels: organisation, supply chain, and the wider industry.

We asked supply chain resilience experts to judge how those capabilities influence one another in agri-food systems. As we looked under the hood of resilience in the agri-food sector, one result stood out clearly: supply-chain-level resilience was the strongest driving force in the system.

A food retailer or large supermarket may be the most resilient, efficient and well-managed actor within the supply chain, but it still depends on growers, processors, transport providers, warehouses, packaging,........

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