‘I don’t see it that way’: Why Trump’s man just rained on the president’s parade 

July 15, 2026 — 11:50am

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An unexpected dip in the US inflation rate has reduced expectations of an imminent rate hike. With the influences that lowered the rate again under threat, however, the relief may be short-lived.

The US Consumer Price Index headline rate fell 0.4 percentage points in June, relative to May, with the year-on-year rate dropping quite sharply, from 4.2 per cent to 3.5 per cent.

“Core” inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, however, was flat – there was 0.0 per cent change in the month – which highlights how much the higher gasoline and diesel prices flowing from the war in the Middle East added to past inflation rates, and are now subtracting from them.

Oil prices, which peaked at almost $US120 a barrel in April, began dropping in May and the fall accelerated in June in the lead up to, and after, the signing of the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran last month – even though neither side completely ceased firing.

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The collapse of that agreement and the resumption of hostilities last week has seen prices, which had fallen back to pre-war levels of less than $US72 a barrel, spike again. They are now above $US85 a barrel.

That means the relief felt at the petrol pump will be short-lived and energy will shift back to being an inflationary influence.

Along with the flow-on effects of Donald Trump’s war in the Middle East, Trump’s tariffs have been the other policy-inspired source of inflationary pressures.

The 0.1 per cent tick up in core goods inflation might suggest that the impact of the tariffs has almost passed through the economy.

Producer price inflation that was running at an annual rate of 6.5 per cent in May, however, suggests that there is more inflation the pipeline – that companies are still passing on the cost of the tariffs to consumers.

With refunds from Trump’s first attempt at a global........

© The Age