Labor is set to crash. With it will go an entire Victorian era

September 2, 2026 — 5:00am

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Victoria is about to undergo an identity change. The Labor government, dominant in the state throughout this century, is set to crash and with it will go an entire political era. Victorians of a certain age have seen this before. They will recall the 1982 state election that concluded 27 years of continuous Liberal government, first under Henry Bolte and then Dick Hamer and briefly Lindsay Thompson. It was as though Rome had fallen.

Victoria had been such a thoroughly Liberal state that the party had governed during those 27 years in its own right, with no need to form a coalition with the Country Party, the forerunner to today’s National Party. Three terms of Labor under John Cain and then Joan Kirner, and two terms of Coalition government headed by Jeff Kennett followed.

When the Kennett government lost office to Labor under Steve Bracks in 1999, a new 27-year political era, this time of Labor dominance – with six out of seven election wins – began. Two months from now, it’s odds-on that voters will show Labor the exit, leaving it with a monumental rebuilding challenge.

No two periods in history ever fully align. As the saying goes, history doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme. There was a surprise interruption – surprising even to the victors – in this current era when the Coalition under Ted Baillieu just got over the line at the 2010 election. They were four unhappy years for the winners. Victorian voters quickly developed buyer’s remorse, the Liberals began infighting, Baillieu was replaced by Denis........

© The Age