At this point, most voters wonder why the Coalition even exists

August 20, 2026 — 5:00am

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After getting smashed at an election, the conventional expectation is that if you keep plugging away, the supporters will return over time. But what if they don’t? Worse, what if, post-thrashing, even more supporters walk away? This is the situation engulfing the federal Coalition, with One Nation’s post-election rise pushing it into third place. It’s not exaggerating to suggest that the Coalition is in an existential crisis.

Sure, the Coalition parties in their various forms hold office in two states and the Northern Territory and by the end of the year will have also picked up Victoria, making them numerically even with the Labor Party. But at the national level, where most political power resides, the outlook is dire. After switching leaders of both parties within 10 months of the 2025 election defeat, things aren’t looking any better.

The worst thing about getting trounced is that there’s no such thing as a period of respite. Play resumes the next day with a reduced team. Some of the best players are no longer available and those who are left to fly the flag look diminished – either psychologically damaged or refusing to believe things are as bad as they appear.

And if the polls suggest that things are continuing to go the wrong way, as they have, a combination of impatience, panic and “every man for himself” can start to kick in. The first step towards overcoming a bad situation is to acknowledge the extent of the problem and do the work of understanding how the situation came to pass. It’s not altogether clear that every member........

© The Age