It’s a winter of discontent for one political contender. It’s not Labor

July 4, 2026 — 5:00am

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As federal parliament goes into its winter recess, only one of the three main contenders is feeling the cold.

Remarkably, the Labor government is recovering. And, after Pauline Hanson went over the top, One Nation’s support appears to have peaked. A cooling, but no chill.

The Coalition, however, seems to be in cold freefall. Still. “We still don’t know how low the Coalition vote will go,” psephologist Antony Green tells me.

It’s only a little over a year into a three-year parliamentary term, so current standings do not guarantee future results. But it’s been a highly irregular year of profound change. Political structures, not just cycles, have changed.

The Coalition broke itself in two, twice. For no important reason. It was a startling self-indulgence of political vanity and stupidity. And its supporters took the cue. If their parliamentary representatives didn’t value the Coalition, why should their voters? Liberal supporters, in particular, rushed to One Nation.

For the first time since the current two-party system took form with the Liberal Party’s inaugural victory in 1949, one of the duopolists has been displaced in the opinion polls.

And, for the first time since the Hawke-Keating tax reforms of 1985, a government has made clearly redistributive change to the tax system. Redistribution always provokes a revolt by those who are having their advantage redistributed to others.

So it’s fascinating to see the political effects so far. Labor’s budget not only redistributed income from investors to workers, it also committed a big breach of trust.

Anthony Albanese had made a promise – 50 times over, he reckoned – that he would not make any changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing. And then he broke it.

The Coalition, One Nation, the media generally, leapt on the lie. All fair, too. It was a deep breach of faith in a country that didn’t have much left.

But, beyond the broken promise, the investor class cried foul. The Australian Financial Review and The Australian took up their cause, backed up by the entire Murdoch media and 2GB, most avidly. Scorching social media campaigns roasted Albanese.

The budget changes also redistributed home buying opportunity from investors to first home buyers.

Albanese said this was necessary so first home buyers could “get a crack” at owning........

© The Age