China can far outlast America over the Middle East conflict

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In a contest of “eating bitterness” and enduring economic pain, Communist China has infinitely greater staying power than unruly, grievance-ridden America.

Donald Trump goes to Beijing as the strategic supplicant, badly needing Chinese help to extricate himself from a quagmire that threatens to destroy his presidency and is entirely of his own making.

The price is becoming clearer. Xi Jinping will use his sway in Iran – and it is China that supplies the critical components for the regime’s missiles and drones – to push for a face-saving settlement and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

In exchange, China wants the US to hand over Taiwan’s future on a silver platter, and with it the global epicentre of advanced semiconductor production.

Perhaps the latest US memorandum to Iran, or rather US wish list, will produce something more than the four false dawns that fooled the market before.

Trump targets Europe as he eyes a new war

Stephen BartholomeuszSenior business columnist

Senior business columnist

Helima Croft, the head of commodities at RBC Capital and a former CIA analyst, says Trump’s eagerness to play down a serious Iranian attack on the Emirates shows just how desperate he is to find a way out before the summer driving season and the mid-terms.

Iran may not let him chicken out except on abject and humiliating terms. “As we have repeatedly stated since the start of the war, it takes two to TACO [Trump Always Chickens Out],” she said.

As I write, Iran is still demanding an end to sanctions, full release of frozen assets, $US270 billion ($373 billion) of reparations, a tithe on passage through the Strait of Hormuz and near-identical terms on uranium enrichment to the Obama deal in 2015.

The Revolutionary Guards have every incentive to string out the process of “no peace, no war, no oil” for another month, lifting US petrol prices far above the Biden peak of........

© The Age