What has been Iran’s biggest policy failure? Some geopolitical strategists might argue that it has been pursuing nuclear technology without building a bomb. The pursuit itself invites suspicion that a weapon is the ultimate goal. Stopping short of building one does little to dispel that suspicion, yet leaves Iran exposed to the risks without the protection a nuclear deterrent might offer.

Iran cannot declare nuclear weapons haram while pursuing uranium enrichment to levels associated with making a nuclear bomb. Such a position is neither strategically coherent nor morally consistent. Has accepting those risks without securing that deterrent been Iran’s most puzzling policy choice?

Iran’s hesitation in pursuing a goal while being unable, or unwilling, to cross the threshold has arguably been its greatest policy failure. However, Iran’s real failure has been its belligerent posture, which has instilled such fear among its neighbors that they are left asking: which poses the greater threat, Iran or Israel?

There could be no greater irony than that this question should arise at all. The belligerence ingrained in Israel’s security doctrine threatens even the very prospect of peace across the region. Yet, Israel has skillfully convinced many Sunni Arab states that Iran poses the greater threat to their existence. Israel has exaggerated that threat, but much of the responsibility lies with Iran’s myopic weaponization of the sectarian divide as a tool of foreign policy.

Iran’s failure has been turned into an instrument of regional power. Iran casts its belligerent posture as resistance, claiming the moral high ground through its opposition to American hegemony and Israeli occupation. To an extent, it has succeeded in selling this claim to the Muslim street, drawing on resentment of American dominance and Israel’s occupation and expansionist ambitions associated with the vision of a “Greater Israel”. The devastation of Gaza has further reinforced that claim.

Iran extends this moral framing to Yemen, portraying the Houthis as part of the “axis of resistance” and their opponents as aligned with evil, thereby advancing its foreign policy objectives.

The real question is whether this claim to moral authority gives Iran carte blanche to impose its policies on the region.

To answer this question, we must first ascertain whether Iran’s belligerence stems from a principled moral conviction or the pursuit of foreign policy interests. Every nation seeks to protect its interests, but that pursuit........

© Stratejik Düşünce Enstitüsü