It is no surprise that the U.S.–Iran peace negotiations are over; the two sides had been talking past each other for a while. Nor is it surprising that the Iranians were the ones to call off the talks; they’re controlling the conflict—the whole relationship between the combatants—at this stage.

President Donald Trump has thought that he can drag out the talks till Tehran bows to his demands because, in the 38 days of bombing that started in February, U.S. and Israeli air and naval power had wiped out so much of Iran’s military.

However, the Iranians think they control the game board because, despite the massive attacks, which hit more than 13,000 targets and killed the top echelon of Iran’s political leadership, the regime survived, the elite branch of its military remains in charge, enough missiles survived to threaten regional adversaries, and, through a shrewd strategy of asymmetric warfare, Iran continues to control and block the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting much of the global economy.

The war never had to happen, and it’s still unclear why Trump felt he had to start it. His initial rationale—to oust the oppressive regime so the Iranian people could take over—was always a pipe dream. (In private meetings, Trump’s advisers dismissed the regime-change scenario—which had been presented by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—as “bullshit.”) Not even Trump seems to have taken it seriously, since, as was later revealed, he and Netanyahu planned to install former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—one of Iran’s most oppressive leaders in recent years—as the ayatollah’s successor.

In recent weeks, Trump has said the war’s purpose was to eliminate—forever—Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon, though this too made little sense. Trump has often said that last June’s bombing raid, known as Midnight Hammer, “obliterated” Iran’s stockpile of........

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