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Welcome to this week’s edition of the Surge, a politics newsletter that was all set to postpone our annual yachting trip in the Strait of Hormuz until the defense secretary said we “don’t need to worry about it.” What a relief!

The main story of the week continues to be the war in Iran, which continues proceeding at a pace that is difficult to know toward a goal that is challenging to understand. Back in Congress, the Senate is still trying to figure out how to deal with Trump’s demands that it pass the SAVE Act in the face of math that does not allow them to fulfill this goal—and now the future of the Texas Senate race is caught up in it. Plus, Dems are in a dispute about the big housing bill moving through Congress.

Let’s begin with the new ayatollah, who does appear to have quite a few similarities to the last ayatollah.

Not seeming particularly surrender-y at the moment.

As the Iran war carried on into another week, we heard—well, read—the first words from the supreme leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the slain Ali Khamenei. This is a guy who was badly injured and is, according to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, “wounded and likely disfigured.” (Hegseth also called him the “so-called not-so-supreme leader,” a devastating burn.) The new Ayatollah Khamenei’s father, wife, and son are all dead, and maybe his mother too. No one’s quite sure. All of which is to say: This isn’t a Venezuela situation, in which the new head of the regime shows more of a willingness to play along with the U.S. Khamenei seems pissed off, and not really in dealmaking mood. He called for “revenge” and for “opening other fronts in areas where the enemy has little experience and would be highly vulnerable.” Most importantly, he said the “lever of closing the Strait of Hormuz must continue to be used.”

Khamenei is betting on the iron law of TACO. Soaring oil prices are not something that Trump has too long of an appetite for, which is why you’ve seen his administration trying to jawbone them down to buy a little more time. Congressional Republicans up for election this year are going to have panic attacks if gas prices climb much higher, and there was a noticeable uptick in Republican angst this week about the need to wrap things up. Americans are dying. The war is expensive, and depleting munitions stocks. Will Trump declare victory and try to end things in another week (if he even can), and the Surge can wash its hands of these downer opening entries? Trump, on Friday, said that he will end the war “when I feel it. When I feel it in my bones.” So maybe with another 20, 30 cents per gallon.

You’re scaring the children.

The story of how the Iran war came to be over the past few months is essentially the story of South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham. On his own volition, he flew around the Middle East—to Israel, to the Gulf States—during congressional recesses to speak with foreign intelligence........

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