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You’ve probably heard the phrase It’s the economy, stupid. The basic idea is that the country’s economic health correlates closely with which candidate or political party ends up winning elections. But it’s increasingly clear that voters prize certain aspects of the economy more highly than others, at least right now. Stocks are booming, and unemployment is relatively low, yet Americans seem to care much more about what things cost and whether their wages make it possible to afford those things. And on that score, two data points out today show why Donald Trump and his party are probably in for a drubbing in next month’s midterms.

What data points are you talking about?

The first is the latest inflation figure. According to the Labor Department, consumer prices rose by 3.7 percent over the year ending in September—a sharper rate of increase than the month before.

In fairness, didn’t inflation peak at over 9 percent a few years back? So isn’t this latest figure pretty good?

You might think so, but most voters disagree. For one thing, inflation is on the wrong trajectory: It was 3 percent on an annual basis when Trump took office last year, and today’s reading is up from 3.4 percent in August. A second factor is psychological. Inflation spiked after the pandemic, and many of us remember what food, rent, and other basic necessities cost before it. So while sticker prices are rising less quickly than they........

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