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Moscow’s annual Victory Day parade, celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany and the end of World War II, is usually a chest-thumping affair, with vast formations of Russian troops marching through Red Square, alongside an impressive array of tanks and missiles, while the country’s leaders beam from the Kremlin’s viewing stand, flanked by foreign dignitaries—including, a couple of times, American presidents—pleasurably awed by the spectacle.

This year’s incarnation, taking place Saturday, will be much more subdued, even diminished, with far fewer troops and no tanks or missiles—no military hardware of any sort—rolled out for display. If any foreign leaders plan to attend the event, their names haven’t been announced. Vladimir Putin himself may put in only a brief appearance.

The reason is that Putin fears Ukraine might wreck the party by hitting it with a drone or committing some other act of sabotage, possibly even killing him in the process. There is good reason for this fear. This will be one of the few times when the Russian president’s precise location, under the open skies, will be known in advance. And the Ukrainians have lately been striking targets deep inside Russia; last week, one of their drones struck a high-rise apartment building in Moscow.

Putin’s fears are so deep, he proposed a ceasefire for May 9, the day of the parade, to avoid any such calamity—the first time........

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