The November election is going to be about the economy unless something apocalyptic happens. So how is the economy doing? 

We’ve seen a lot of conflicting economic data released recently that doesn’t provide a clear answer to where the country’s heading. 

The most obvious conundrum is the disparity between economic growth, or gross domestic product, and the number of jobs created over the past six months. The GDP numbers have been quite positive, with a 4.3 percent increase in the third quarter after second-quarter growth of 3.8 percent. 

However, the December job creation number was a disappointing 50,000, while over the last six months a net of only 87,000 jobs were created overall. For some context, the average monthly pre-COVID-19 job creation from January 1981 through February 2020 was slightly over 130,000. 

That leaves a big question. Are we about to see big job increases that reflect a robust GDP, or is the lack of job creation more trend than temporary? Put another way: Is weak job growth merely a lagging indicator of productivity and growth, or is it a canary in the coal mine signaling more uncertainty ahead?

Economic growth and job creation are obviously important in terms of their impact on wages, a critical factor in whether the electorate feels it can or can’t handle the cost of living — or to be precise, inflation.

In a column I wrote in December, I identified the three components of the electorate’s report card on inflation that they will use to decide whether they are satisfied with the results of the economic policies of President Donald Trump and Republicans. So, with new data, here’s........

© Roll Call