Election 2026

Republicans Fumble Their 2024 Gains With Arabs in Michigan

Democrats alienated Arab Americans in the last election. Now Republicans have driven them back.

Matthew Petti | 11.4.2026 1:04 PM

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(Photo: Dominic Gwinn/ZUMAPRESS/Newscom)

One of the most remarkable—if predictable—stories of the 2024 election was the Arab swing in Michigan. The state's Palestinian- and Lebanese-American communities organized a dissent campaign in the Democratic primary against President Joe Biden's support for Israeli wars. Biden responded by mocking the idea that Republicans would be better for Arab Americans, and Vice President Kamala Harris made a hawkish pro-war closing pitch in Michigan. Republican candidate Donald Trump, meanwhile, courted Muslim voters. Unsurprisingly, Middle Eastern diasporas swung heavily to Trump and third parties, perhaps by enough to win Trump the state.

Now the pendulum is swinging back around. The Arab-majority city of Dearborn went from only 36 percent percent for Harris in 2024 to 82 percent for Democratic Senate candidate Abdulrahman Mohamed "Abdul" El-Sayed this year. And that helped push Michigan back into Democratic hands.

Part of the Dearborn swing was a home-field advantage: El-Sayed is the son of Egyptian immigrants who was born in the Detroit suburbs. But it also reflects the fact that Trump, who had closed the 2024 campaign in Michigan alongside Muslim clergy and promised to end U.S. wars in the Middle East, spent the 2026 campaign touting his war with Iran and bashing El-Sayed for his name. And the last-minute defection of Rep. Haley Stevens (D–Mich.) to the Republican candidate's camp brought Israel back to the forefront of the race.

Arabs (including Christian Arabs) are around 2 percent of Michigan's population, and Muslims (including non-Arabs) are similarly around 2 percent. But electoral math allows them to punch above their weight. As Cubans in Florida spent decades showing, a bloc that is up for grabs in a state with tight margins can punch above its weight. One reason they have been up for grabs is because politicians from both parties have chosen to target the........

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