Crime

The Homicide Rate Has Dropped to Historic Lows. Contrary to What Politicians Say, No One Really Knows Why.

The latest numbers from a sample of U.S. cities indicate continuing crime decreases that go beyond a reversion to pre-2020 norms.

Jacob Sullum | 7.23.2026 7:30 AM

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A new report from the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) suggests the national homicide rate this year will hit a historic low, continuing a downward trend that began in 2022. In January, the CCJ estimated that the 2025 homicide rate would be the lowest since at least 1900, and the latest numbers indicate that the 2026 rate will be even lower. Other kinds of crime are also down, in some cases dramatically.

That development is surely welcome news. But we should be skeptical of the explanations offered by politicians of both major parties, who habitually reduce a complex reality to evidence in favor of the policies they have long supported.

The CCJ collects crime data from 36 U.S. cities, ranging in size from Rochester (population: 200,000) to New York City (8.5 million). The homicide estimates are based on data from 30 cities that have consistently reported numbers for that crime since 2018.

After rising slightly in 2019, the average homicide rate in the CCJ sample shot up in 2020, consistent with FBI data indicating a 30 percent increase that year. The rate in the CCJ sample rose again in 2021 and fell slightly in 2022 before dropping dramatically in 2023, 2024, and 2025. According to the new report, the average homicide rate for the first half of this year was down 18 percent from the same period in 2025 and down 51 percent since the first half of 2022.

This trend goes beyond a reversion to the pre-2020 norm. "Across the sample cities," the CCJ says, "the 2026 average homicide rate" for January through June was "about 31% lower than in 2019."

The FBI's national numbers tell a similar story: Homicides fell by 11.6 percent in 2023, nearly 15 percent in 2024, and 18.1 percent in 2025 (based on a preliminary estimate). According to the FBI's preliminary data, murders during the year ending in April 2026 were down 18.2 percent from the previous 12 months.

A longer view puts these numbers in perspective.........

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