The stock market has become a front in the Iran war. Here's what it means for investors

Presidential statements functioning to move trillions in value represent something genuinely new: the market itself as a quasi-front in the war

Alex Brandon-Pool/Getty Images

Since President Donald Trump launched a war against Iran in late February, the U.S. economy has absorbed a series of escalating shocks. Gas prices have surged almost 40% to over $4 a gallon. Dated Brent crude — the physical oil that refineries actually buy — spiked this week to $141 per barrel, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, institutions from Vanguard to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta have raised inflation expectations and revised growth estimates downward, with the Fed’s GDP tracker falling from 3% in early March to just 1.6% as of Thursday.

If the economic effects have already been profound, they have failed to grab headlines in the way that the stock market has. Increased volatility, with presidential statements functioning to move trillions in value, may represent something genuinely new: the market itself treated as a quasi-front in the war.

Take the events of Monday, March 23rd.

Around 7 a.m., Trump posted on Truth Social claiming “very good and productive conversations” between the U.S. and Iran that were leading toward a “complete and total resolution of our hostilities.” Within minutes, the S&P 500 surged 2.6%, adding roughly $2 trillion in market........

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