The economic risks of the U.S. war on Iran just keep mounting

Oil and bond markets continue to show signs of stress as the U.S. war on Iran stretches into fourth week

Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images

As the U.S.-Israel war on Iran stretches into its fourth week, the economic damage is quickly accumulating, darkening the global economic picture. Energy-industry CEOs are just one party among many warning that most people still haven't yet grasped the full scale.

On Monday, the national average gas price hit $3.97, up from $2.92 just one month ago — a 36% increase in 30 days. As of Tuesday morning, Brent crude is trading at around $98 a barrel, up a staggering 63% since the year began. This makes it an extra interesting time for the CERAWeek energy conference to kick off in Houston this week. Widely considered the Davos of the energy markets, the conference is put on by S&P Global $SPGI and draws the leading lights of energy markets, typically including the heads of Aramco, Chevron $CVX, ExxonMobil $XOM, all major national oil companies, the IEA, and OPEC, as well as U.S. energy officials.

The fact that the Saudi Aramco CEO and UAE minister both canceled their appearances this year to deal with the war fallout is itself newsworthy, signaling how serious the situation is. When the people who would normally be keynoting the world's biggest energy conference are too busy managing a crisis to attend, that’s a major indicator of disruption in the field.

But that’s also just the tip of the iceberg — or the oil field, said speakers who........

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